Thursday, March 12, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1709.61 (-18.67 pts, -1.08%) | VN30: 1859.8 (-1.59%) · Market Breadth: 138 advancers vs 205 decliners (ratio: 0.67) · Leaders: Energy (-0.05%), Industrials (-0.07%), Real Estate (-0.28%) · Laggards: Energy (-0.05%), Industrials (-0.07%), Real Estate (-0.28%), Materials (-0.57%), Consumer Staples (-0.74%), Healthcare (-0.96%), Consumer Disc (-1.06%), Utilities (-1.56%), Financials (-1.57%), IT (-3.03%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -298.9bn · Top Buyer: MWG (+245.8bn) · Top Seller: FPT (-125.8bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Distribution | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Churn | Sector bias: Rotating
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,709.61 | 1.08% | 958.80 | 27,246.1 |
| VN30 | 1,859.80 | 1.59% | 426.00 | 15,169.6 |
| VN100 | 1,776.44 | 1.10% | 845.10 | 25,042.4 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| ABB | 0 | 100.00% |
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| TCB | 32 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| REE | 145 | 100.00% |
| MBB | 109,400 | 99.99% |
| CTD | 11,669 | 99.98% |
| PNJ | 256,100 | 99.85% |
| MWG | 1,874,366 | 99.74% |
| SAV | 74,014 | 99.44% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -298.9bn — moderate net selling
Top Net Buyers: MWG (+245.8bn), VNM (+98.8bn), VCI (+65.2bn), DPM (+55.0bn), DGC (+51.4bn)
Top Net Sellers: FPT (-125.8bn), VHM (-97.3bn), PVS (-92.8bn), TMS (-87.4bn), BSR (-84.7bn)
Flow Breadth: 157 stocks bought vs 154 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND +269.3bn, 10d: VND -4845.3bn, 20d: VND -7328.6bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
Data Unavailable
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money direction: Churn
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Rotating
Stocks in Focus
STOCKS IN FOCUS — Morning Call | 2026-03-12
TABLE 1: CONFLUENCE PICKS
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | -6.8% | PE 13.3x (13th %ile), PB 1.59x (52nd %ile) | Three-source convergence on Vietnam's largest steelmaker. SIF thesis centers on 20% YoY rebar volume growth, rising ASP, and the AD measure on HRC imports from March 2025 boosting 2H26 sales. Dung Quat 2 Blast Furnace No.2 underpins broker consensus of 34-38% NPATMI growth in 2026, with 7-broker coverage at +33.9% YoY consensus. The Thu Lam project adds a speculative kicker worth ~10% of market cap over two years. The lone negative: NPATMI revisions are slightly down (-6.8% avg, led by BSC at -21%), suggesting some brokers are trimming near-term numbers on DQ2 depreciation and softer export. PE at 13th percentile of 3-year range provides cushion. Zalo is the top retail-mentioned name with 13 mentions and 3 buys vs. 1 sell. |
| MWG | Buy | Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | +15.1% | PE 17.7x (5th %ile), PB 3.81x (83rd %ile) | Strong two-source convergence backed by the most aggressive NPATMI upgrade in the broker-covered universe at +15.1% avg across 7 brokers (MBS the highest at +34%). DC IRIS note flags a preliminary 1Q26 NPATMI of ~VND 2,500bn, +61.7% YoY and +20.7% QoQ, described as "possible" with ICT/CE margin expansion driving a strong quarter. MBS comparison report confirms a more bullish-than-consensus stance, calling valuation "attractive" on a new profit base. PE at just 5th percentile of 3-year range is the key valuation argument despite PB at 83rd percentile — the PE discount is the more relevant metric for a recovery story. BHX store expansion and TGDD/DMX stability are the structural drivers. No material conflicts. |
| PNJ | Accumulate | Broker-Top5, Rev-Up | +31.9% | PE 14.1x (37th %ile), PB 3.03x (71st %ile) | Highest NPATMI revision of the entire coverage universe at +31.9% avg (BVSC +31%, HSC +31%, SSI +33%), driven by stronger-than-expected FY25 results (+33.78% YoY) and continued gold price tailwinds supporting FY26 growth of 24-27%. Broker consensus FY26 growth ranges from 12.5% to 27%. Valuation is moderate — PE at 37th percentile, PB at 71st percentile — not cheap enough to be a strong buy. The conflict: DC's internal SIF rating was downgraded to Hold in January after a 25% price rally, noting the stock now sits ~18% below the revised target of VND 127k. The revision upgrade is a positive re-rating signal, but PMs should note the SIF analyst's caution on entry price. Treat as an accumulate on pullbacks rather than a chase. |
| GMD | Accumulate | SIF, Rev-Up | +27.9% | PE 19.3x (95th %ile), PB 2.5x (70th %ile) | SIF remains Strong Buy (upgraded from Hold in January) with TP VND 79k, supported by a 10% deepwater port fee hike effective February 2026, removal of Sumitomo block sale overhang, and potential rubber divestment upside. NPATMI revisions are the second-highest at +27.9% avg across 4 brokers (ACBS leading at +38%). SBBS initiates with Buy and a TP 10.7% above prior consensus high, adding incremental bullish weight. The key conflict is valuation: PE at 95th percentile of 3-year range is a meaningful constraint and limits the rating to Accumulate. FY26 EPS growth is modest at 4.3% on a broker consensus basis, which makes the case more medium-term than tactical. Best suited for PMs with a 12+ month horizon or on a market pullback. |
TABLE 2: SINGLE-SOURCE & MIXED SIGNALS
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHC | Buy | SIF | +9.3% | PE 9.0x (6th %ile), PB 1.6x (43rd %ile) | Fresh SIF initiation today (2026-03-12) flagging a tactical 1H26 play: 34% YoY NPATMI growth on low base, better ASP, and weaker OCC input costs. PE at 6th percentile is the strongest valuation argument — 2.5 SD below 3-year average per DC analyst. Insider buying registered consistently since 2H25. The one conflict: HSC comparison report notes a downgrade from Buy to Add with emerging input cost risks (logistics/OCC) flagged as a 2H26 and FY27 risk — this is a near-term vs. medium-term tension that PMs should monitor. NPATMI revision is only +9.3% (modest), limiting to a single-source rating. TP VND 45k (22% upside). |
| VCG | Watch | SIF | n/a | PE 3.7x (6th %ile), PB 1.28x (4th %ile) | DC SIF analyst explicitly labels this a "highly speculative position." The thesis is event-driven: Xuan Cau Group potentially taking an unofficial stake, enhancing VCG's political positioning for infrastructure contract wins. No broker coverage, no revision data. Valuation is at the lowest percentile range across both PE and PB, suggesting deep discount but also a liquidity/governance risk premium. Only for PMs comfortable with speculative, catalyst-driven trades and willing to accept binary outcomes. |
| VCI | Watch | SIF | +4.9% | PE 19.8x (6th %ile), PB 1.73x (3rd %ile) | SIF Buy with internal chatter pointing to 100% growth in 2026 (DC forecast 30%). IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88) worth ~VND 215bn is a defined near-term catalyst, with additional upside from F88 HoSE listing. PB at 3rd percentile and PE at 6th percentile are historically cheap. However, single-source confirmation and only one broker revision (+4.9% by HSC) keep this at Watch. FTSE March announcement is an external re-rating catalyst to monitor. |
| MSH | Watch | SIF | n/a | PE 6.8x (9th %ile), PB 2.17x (82nd %ile) | SIF Buy with TP VND 48k (23% upside), upgraded after 4Q25 actual results. PE at 9th percentile is attractive; PB at 82nd percentile is a relative constraint. No broker revision data or IRIS note beyond the SIF card. Insufficient data to rate higher than Watch. |
| ANV | Watch | Rev-Up | +28.8% | PE 6.4x (12th %ile), PB 1.82x (74th %ile) | Meaningful revision upgrade (+28.8%, though only 1 broker — HSC) alongside SIF Buy from January targeting VND 36k (29% upside) on ASP pangasius recovery and tilapia expansion. PE at 12th percentile is compelling. However, single broker driving the revision and limited coverage depth (2 brokers total) limits conviction. Aquaculture US tariff risk is a binary factor to watch. |
| VHC | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 | +6.3% | PE 9.7x (34th %ile), PB 1.38x (20th %ile) | SIF Buy from January with TP VND 74k (25% upside) on ASP recovery above USD 3/kg and insider buying (+share buybacks of ~6.7%). Revision is modest at +6.3% avg across 3 brokers, with VCI_ENG the outlier at +18% vs. median. Least-covered broker list placement adds a differentiated angle. No fresh IRIS note. Valuation is undemanding. Watch for ASP and US tariff developments. |
| VNM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 | +2.0% | PE 13.7x (13th %ile), PB 4.2x (37th %ile) | SIF Buy from January (TP VND 78k) on 15% YoY earnings recovery in 1H26 and 6.5% dividend yield. SBBS initiates with Buy and a bullish tone on premiumization and EM index inclusion catalysts. Revision is thin at +2.0% across 3 brokers. PE at 13th percentile supports the value case. EM upgrade and SCIC divestment are medium-term re-rating events, not near-term catalysts. |
| VHM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 | -2.5% | PE 9.6x (76th %ile), PB 1.67x (79th %ile) | MBS comparison report is more bullish than consensus, raising TP above prior high and citing FTSE Global All-Cap inclusion potential and new project pipeline. However, revisions are slightly negative (-2.5% avg), PE is at 76th percentile (not cheap by history), and only 1 dedicated broker covers the name. Mixed signals — MBS bullishness vs. tepid revisions and above-average valuation. Monitor FTSE inclusion timeline and presales execution. |
| SSI | Watch | Broker-Top5 | -2.0% | PE 14.6x (1st %ile), PB 1.9x (28th %ile) | PE at the 1st percentile of 3-year range is the standout data point — historically as cheap as it has ever been on earnings. Modest NPATMI decline (-2.0% avg) with a split between HSC (+5%) and SBBS (-9%). Market upgrade FTSE catalyst in September 2026 is the medium-term driver. Single source and marginal revision decline keep this at Watch for now. |
| MSN | Neutral | Broker-Top5 | +18.7% | PE 27.0x (0th %ile), PB 2.99x (6th %ile) | Revision of +18.7% avg is distorted by BVSC's outlier at +62% vs. HSC's flat and SSI's -6%. HSC is flagged as significantly out of consensus at -23% vs. median. PE at 0th percentile reflects the complexity of a conglomerate with highly variable earnings rather than a pure value signal. 2026 is a debt-repayment-focused year with WCM turning profitable — a gradual re-rating story with execution risk. |
| VCB | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | -0.8% | PE 14.2x (18th %ile), PB 2.2x (4th %ile) | Retail interest (#3 on Zalo, 4B/1S), but NPATMI revisions are flat to slightly down (-0.8%). The private placement of 6.5% stake is a near-term overhang as well as a potential catalyst post-completion. PB at 4th percentile is historically cheap. Without a positive revision catalyst or IRIS confirmation, this is a Neutral hold for existing positions. |
| MBB | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.2% | PE 7.9x (84th %ile), PB 1.55x (85th %ile) | DC IRIS note is explicitly Neutral, flagging fair valuation at 1.3x forward PB with a 20% premium to Tier 1 peers. PE at 84th percentile makes it expensive relative to its own history. Property lending overhang (~11% of loans in RE developer exposure) is a watch item for FY26 asset quality. 35% credit growth quota is a positive but is likely already in the price. |
| STB | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.1% | PE 20.9x (99th %ile), PB 2.07x (99th %ile) | Both PE and PB at the 99th percentile of 3-year range — the most expensive stock on a historical valuation basis in the entire coverage universe today. The VAMC stake sale is a widely known catalyst that has been discussed for years; execution remains uncertain. Retail interest is high (8 mentions, 3B/0S), but without an imminent catalyst or earnings revision support, valuation alone warrants caution. |
| DHG | Neutral | Rev-Up | +22.6% | PE 14.7x (38th %ile), PB 3.15x (47th %ile) | Single broker revision (+22.6% from HSC) is notable but unconfirmed by a second source. Valuation is mid-range on both metrics. No SIF coverage, no IRIS note, no Zalo mention. Worth monitoring if a second broker confirms. |
| TLG | Neutral | Rev-Up | +24.2% | PE 10.6x (31st %ile), PB 1.9x (44th %ile) | Single broker revision (+24.2% from HSC) with no supporting data from other sources. Valuation is undemanding. Insufficient data to rate directionally. |
| DGC | Reduce | Rev-Down | -24.3% | PE 10.2x (30th %ile), PB 2.04x (15th %ile) | NPATMI cut of -24.3% avg (HSC -34%, VCI_ENG -14%), with the HSC comparison report explicitly adopting a "more cautious" tone — "complex near-term picture" and limited ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Upside in HSC's maintained Add rating has narrowed from 30%+ to 16%. Ore license investigation overhang remains unresolved, even if Vietcap argues it is priced in. PB at 15th percentile limits downside, but the revision trend is clearly negative. |
| NVL | Reduce | Rev-Down | -26.4% | PE 13.7x (65th %ile), PB 0.58x (15th %ile) | NPATMI cut of -26.4% avg with a wide dispersion: HSC at -53% vs. VCI_ENG flat, suggesting significant uncertainty in earnings delivery. PE at 65th percentile is above-average for a name with deteriorating estimates. No positive confirming signals from any other source. |
| NKG | Avoid | Rev-Down | -33.9% | PE 30.1x (89th %ile), PB 0.82x (16th %ile) | Severe broker disagreement: BSC cuts by -63% (to VND 62bn) vs. HSC raising by a similar magnitude to VND 438bn — a 75% deviation from median in both directions. This level of out-of-consensus divergence signals deep uncertainty in the earnings base. PE at 89th percentile on what may be inflated consensus earnings is a significant risk. PB at 16th percentile provides limited support given the earnings visibility issue. |
| HAX | Avoid | Rev-Down | -68.0% | PE 197.9x (96th %ile), PB 1.01x (1st %ile) | The most extreme downgrade in the universe: HSC cuts NPATMI by -68%, leaving PE at 197.9x — the 96th percentile of 3-year history. Earnings have clearly not recovered to support the current price. No positive signals from any source. |
| CRE | Avoid | Rev-Down | -48.9% | PE 45.2x (24th %ile), PB 0.6x (27th %ile) | NPATMI slashed by -48.9% by a single broker (HSC). PE at 45.2x remains elevated despite the cut. No offsetting signals from any other source. The PE percentile (24th) is misleading — the absolute level of 45x on a name with collapsing earnings is not a valuation discount. |
| VGT | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | n/a | PE 7.4x (0th %ile), PB 0.88x (27th %ile) | Differentiated/ |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
Oil Comment: Longer Disruption Means Higher Prices
- Longer disruption. We upgrade our price forecast because we now assume 21 days (vs. 10 days prior) of low Strait of Hormuz oil (SoH) flows at 10% of normal levels before a 30-day gradual recovery (Exhibit 1). Our tracking shows an estimated hit to Persian Gulf exports of 16.2mb/d (4-day moving average, Exhibit 2). Based on our "after the shock" model , we forecast Brent/WTI prices in 2026Q4 of $71/67 (vs. $66/62 prior) (Exhibit 3, Exhibit 9). We also incorporate a larger policy response and a ... ---
USA: Housing Starts Above Expectations; Trade Deficit Narrows by More Than Expected in January; Q1 GDP Tracking at 3.3%
BOTTOM LINE: The trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in January, mostly driven by an increase in gold exports that are excluded from GDP. Housing starts increased by 7.2%, against expectations for a decline, while the level of housing starts in December was revised down. Initial jobless claims edged down, in line with expectations and still below their average level in 2025H2. Our Q1 GDP tracking estimate now stands at 3.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting a drag from highe... ---
US Economics Analyst: Iran and the US Economy
- The main transmission channel from the war with Iran to the US economy is the price of oil. Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average—before falling back to $71 by 2026Q4. In an upside risk scenario where oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for a total of one month, they estimate that Brent would average $110 in March and April before gradually declining to $76 by 2026Q4. - Our rules of thumb are that a sustained... ---
India: Headline inflation increased on higher food inflation
Bottom line: February headline inflation increased to 3.2% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.1% yoy, January: 2.7% yoy) due to higher food inflation, mainly driven by higher vegetable inflation on a low base. Core inflation (headline inflation excluding food and fuel) remained unchanged at 3.4% yoy. Our preliminary estimate for March headline inflation is 3.4% yoy, with food prices tracking a sequential contraction. Going forward, there are upside risks to our current headline inflation forecast of 3.... ---
Global Markets Daily: The Evolving FX Response to the Energy Shock
- The terms of trade and risk-off elements of the unfolding geopolitical shock remain the dominant drivers of FX price action, in our view. But over the course of the past two weeks, we find evidence that the imprint from the terms of trade shock has become clearer over time, while the imprint from the risk-off shock has faded in comparison. That dynamic informs our tactical FX views, where procyclical energy exporters with positive underlying fundamentals still offer attractive risk reward, in ... ---
European Economics Analyst: The Risk of Second-Round Inflation Effects from the Energy Price Surge
- The monetary policy implications of the ongoing spike in energy prices depend importantly on whether the shock creates second-round effects in underlying inflation. A key insight from the 2022 episode is that the risk of such pass-through effects depends on the size and persistence of the energy shock, but also the economic conditions at the time. - Comparing the current energy shock with 2022 shows that (so far) it is significantly smaller, narrower and expected to be less persistent. The Eu... ---
European Economics Analyst: Higher Energy Prices, Weaker Growth and More Inflation Across Europe
- We are making further changes to our growth, inflation and central banks forecasts across Europe. This reflects our commodity team’s revised forecasts for oil (at $77/bbl on average in 2026) and gas prices (at 46 EUR/MWh on average). - Given continued upside risks to energy prices, we also consider an “adverse” scenario where energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for 30 days (pushing oil prices to a peak of $130/bbl) and a “very adverse” scenario with a 60-day disruption (wh... ---
Asia’s Energy Shock
The recovery in Asian markets stalled on Thursday, despite the International Energy Agency’s decision to release 400mn barrels of oil from global strategic reserves. Asia’s outsized reliance on trade routes via the Strait of Hormuz means it remains vulnerable to the oil and gas squeeze in the Middle East. Japan will begin to release oil from its strategic reserve next week. But most other Asian governments have few reserves to spare and are thus attempting to limit the economic fallout by ration...