Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1728.34 (+51.64 pts, +3.08%) | VN30: 1889.94 (+2.88%) · Market Breadth: 291 advancers vs 57 decliners (ratio: 5.11) · Leaders: Consumer Disc (+6.03%), Energy (+4.85%), Industrials (+4.77%) · Laggards: None
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND +1160.0bn · Top Buyer: MWG (+595.8bn) · Top Seller: STB (-143.3bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Fragile | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Churn | Sector bias: Rotating
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,728.34 | +3.08% | 998.60 | 29,559.9 |
| VN30 | 1,889.94 | +2.88% | 456.00 | 17,434.2 |
| VN100 | 1,796.23 | +3.19% | 863.40 | 27,168.3 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| ABB | 0 | 100.00% |
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| TCB | 32 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| REE | 108 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 11,669 | 99.98% |
| MBB | 569,000 | 99.97% |
| PNJ | 333,251 | 99.80% |
| SAV | 74,014 | 99.44% |
| MWG | 4,766,322 | 99.34% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND +1160.0bn — very strong net buying
Top Net Buyers: MWG (+595.8bn), ACB (+116.6bn), HPG (+113.1bn), BSR (+96.4bn), GMD (+88.8bn)
Top Net Sellers: STB (-143.3bn), SSI (-137.8bn), BID (-101.8bn), VCB (-85.6bn), VIC (-72.3bn)
Flow Breadth: 195 stocks bought vs 111 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -2662.1bn, 10d: VND -7683.8bn, 20d: VND -8247.7bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
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CVD data requires PostgreSQL database access which is not currently configured.
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money Direction: Churn
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Rotating / Capitulation Base
Sector bias: Capitulation — watch for confirmation of base.
Stocks in Focus
# Stocks in Focus — Morning Call | 2026-03-11
Table 1: Confluence Picks
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | -6.8% | PE 13.6x (17th %ile 3Y), PB 1.63x (63rd %ile 3Y) | Three-source convergence on Vietnam's largest steelmaker. SIF thesis centers on 20% YoY rebar volume growth, rising ASP, and the Dung Quat 2 blast furnace contribution — consensus projects +33.9% NPATMI in 2026 and +29% in 2027. The AD on HRC imports (effective Mar-25) is a near-term demand catalyst, and the Thu Lam real estate project adds a potential VND 20,000bn profit over two years (~10% of market cap). PE at 17th percentile over 3 years is inexpensive vs. history. Key conflict: NPATMI revisions are mildly negative (-6.8% avg) led by BSC cutting -21%, reflecting concerns around higher DQ2 depreciation and weaker-than-expected steel export momentum. Retail interest is highest in the Zalo universe (#1, 12 mentions). EM inclusion flow and public investment recovery remain medium-term tailwinds. Net: buy the dip argument holds given cheap valuation and earnings inflection, but monitor steel price and DQ2 ramp trajectory. |
| GMD | Buy | SIF, Rev-Up | +27.9% | PE 19.2x (94th %ile 3Y), PB 2.49x (69th %ile 3Y) | Strongest earnings revision in the universe (+27.9% avg across four brokers, led by ACBS at +38%). SIF re-rated to Strong Buy on Jan-7 citing fee hike approval (+10% effective Feb-26), an 18% share price pullback from Sep-25 highs, EV/EBITDA of 9.5x FY26F (incl. Gemalink), and the absorption of a 19mn-share block overhang from SSJ. SBBS initiates with BUY and TP above prior consensus high (+10.7%), calling out strategic port positioning and capacity expansion. Main caveat is valuation: PE at 94th percentile over 3 years is the most stretched in this table, reflecting the re-rating already partly done. Rubber divestment and further tariff-related trade flow upside are unpriced optionality. Conviction is high on earnings direction; entry price discipline matters given premium valuation. |
| PNJ | Accumulate | Broker-Top5, Rev-Up | +31.9% | PE 14.2x (40th %ile 3Y), PB 3.06x (76th %ile 3Y) | Second-largest earnings revision in the universe (+31.9% avg, all three revising brokers — BVSC, HSC, SSI — clustering tightly at +31–33%). FY25 NPATMI grew 33.8% YoY; brokers forecast +24–27% in FY26, supported by gold price tailwinds and improving consumer sentiment. SIF is on Hold (as of Jan-16) after a 25% rally, with TP revised up to VND 127k (18% upside), flagging catalysts in a 2:1 stock dividend and new CEO. The Hold SIF vs. Buy-grade revision signal is the key conflict: the analyst is positive on fundamentals but cautious on near-term valuation post-rally. PE at 40th percentile is reasonable but PB at 76th percentile is less compelling. Rated Accumulate rather than Buy given the SIF caution and elevated book multiple. |
Table 2: Single-Source & Mixed Signals
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANV | Accumulate | Rev-Up, SIF | +28.8% | PE 6.4x (12th %ile 3Y), PB 1.8x (74th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (Jan-29) based on pangasius ASP recovery in 1Q26, tilapia market share expansion, and a 2026F NPATMI growth target of 20–25% YoY. PE at 6.4x is at the 12th percentile — cheap vs. its own history and a material discount to sector peer VHC (avg 5Y PE ~11x). Revision is +28.8% but sourced from a single broker (HSC). Low broker coverage (2 firms) limits signal confidence; rated Accumulate pending broader coverage confirmation. |
| VCI | Accumulate | SIF | +4.9% | PE 20.1x (7th %ile 3Y), PB 1.76x (4th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (Mar-3) with internal chatter suggesting 100% 2026 NPATMI growth vs. the house forecast of +30%. IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88 secondary) estimated at ~VND 215bn contribution, with upside from F88 HoSE listing and a large "Others" investment income category. PB of 1.76x is at the 4th percentile vs. 3-year history — historically cheap. Modest revision (+4.9%, single broker) and limited Zalo attention (#18). Catalyst timing around FTSE March announcement and IB deal closures is key. Rated Accumulate; upgrade to Buy on IB pipeline confirmation. |
| VCG | Watch | SIF | n/a | PE 3.5x (4th %ile 3Y), PB 1.2x (3rd %ile 3Y) | Fresh SIF Buy (today, Mar-11) based on the thesis that Xuan Cau Group is likely to take an informal controlling position, enhancing VCG's political connections and its ability to win infrastructure contracts. The analyst explicitly labels this a "highly speculative position." Valuation is at extreme lows (PE 4th percentile, PB 3rd percentile). No earnings revision data; no broker coverage or Zalo signal. Single-source, event-driven, speculative in nature. Watch for confirmation of the Xuan Cau stake acquisition before adding. |
| MSH | Accumulate | SIF | n/a | PE 6.7x (7th %ile 3Y), PB 2.14x (79th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (Feb-25) with TP raised to VND 48,000 (23% upside) following 4Q25 actual results. PE at 6.7x is the 7th percentile vs. 3-year history — deep value territory. PB at 79th percentile is a mild offset. No revision data or broker consensus available; single-source. Rated Accumulate on valuation and SIF conviction; insufficient multi-source confirmation for a higher rating. |
| VNM | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +2.0% | PE 14.0x (20th %ile 3Y), PB 4.29x (44th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (Jan-28) highlighting 15% YoY earnings growth in 1H26F, PE ~1SD below 5-year average, and 6.5% dividend yield. EM reclassification and SCIC divestment are re-rating catalysts. SBBS initiates with BUY, incrementally more bullish than consensus, emphasizing premiumization and index inclusion. Revision consensus is near-flat (+2.0%), and broker-bottom-5 status signals limited sell-side attention — a potential differentiation opportunity. PE at 20th percentile provides valuation support. Main risk: FY25 EPS declined 4.8%; FY26 broker estimate of +5.8% growth is modest. |
| MWG | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +11.8% | PE 18.1x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 3.9x (89th %ile 3Y) | Broad positive revision (+11.8% avg, 6 brokers) with consensus projecting +21–28% NPATMI growth in 2026, driven by BHX margin improvement and steady TGDD/DMX contribution. PE at 5th percentile vs. 3-year history is notably cheap. However, PB at 89th percentile is elevated, and there is no SIF or Zalo confirmation. Single-source (Broker-Top5). Accumulate on PE valuation and revision breadth; PB caution noted. |
| VHC | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +6.3% | PE 9.7x (34th %ile 3Y), PB 1.39x (22nd %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (Jan-29) on pangasius ASP above USD 3/kg in 1Q26, +10–15% NPATMI growth in 2026F, and insider buying + buyback activity (total ~9% of shares). TP VND 74k implies ~25% upside; 2026 PE of 8.5x vs. 5-year avg of 11.5x. VCI_ENG is a meaningful outlier at +18% revision vs. consensus, implying higher upside potential than the headline +6.3% avg suggests. Low sell-side coverage (1 active broker) is the key risk — limited price discovery. |
| CTI | Watch | Rev-Up | +50.7% | PE 9.4x (15th %ile 3Y), PB 0.91x (78th %ile 3Y) | Largest percentage revision in the Rev-Up list (+50.7%), driven by a single broker (BSC, +51%). Thesis is exposure to Vietnam's accelerating public investment cycle via construction stone quarries in Dong Nai. PE at 15th percentile is inexpensive. However, single-broker revision with no SIF, no Zalo, and minimal coverage (1 broker, SBBS) severely limits signal confidence. Watch for additional broker initiation before acting. |
| TLG | Watch | Rev-Up | +24.2% | PE 11.3x (54th %ile 3Y), PB 2.03x (66th %ile 3Y) | Meaningful upgrade (+24.2%) from a single broker (HSC). No SIF, no Zalo, no other broker coverage data, no published thesis in the data. PE and PB are both mid-range vs. history. Single-source with no narrative support; Watch pending additional context. |
| MSN | Watch | Broker-Top5 | +18.7% | PE 26.9x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 2.99x (6th %ile 3Y) | Broad broker coverage (6 firms) and average revision of +18.7%, though BVSC (+62%) and SSI (-6%) diverge sharply — HSC's VND 5,187bn estimate is 23% below the median of VND 6,711bn, flagged as out-of-consensus. PE at 0th percentile is historically the cheapest it has been, reflecting low base recovery. WCM turning profitable and MSR/MML recovery are the key 2026 drivers. Elevated PE (26.9x) on absolute terms despite percentile cheapness, and HSC's low-end estimate creates uncertainty. Watch until HSC outlier is resolved. |
| SSI | Watch | Broker-Top5 | -2.0% | PE 15.1x (6th %ile 3Y), PB 1.97x (39th %ile 3Y) | Modest negative revision (-2.0%) with limited broker divergence (HSC +5%, SBBS -9%). Market upgrade catalyst in Sep-26 (FTSE) is the core thesis; SSI is a top-2 brokerage by market share at 12.5%. PE at 6th percentile is cheap. No SIF or Zalo support. Watch ahead of FTSE inclusion timeline crystallizing; upgrade to Buy if revision trend turns positive. |
| VHM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 | -2.5% | PE 9.6x (76th %ile 3Y), PB 1.67x (79th %ile 3Y) | MBS initiates with an outperform rating and TP above prior consensus high, citing new project launches, FTSE Global All-Cap inclusion, and P/B discount to 5-year average. HSC cuts -8% vs. SSI +3%, showing split broker views. PE at 76th percentile and PB at 79th percentile mean valuation is not a tailwind. Presales growth projected at 9% in 2026F vs. 69% in 2025 — a material deceleration. Watch; MBS bullishness is incremental signal but insufficient to override stretched valuation and modest revision. |
| VCB | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | -0.8% | PE 14.3x (23rd %ile 3Y), PB 2.22x (5th %ile 3Y) | PB at 5th percentile is historically very cheap for Vietnam's highest-quality bank. Private placement of 6.5% stake (bidding process underway) is the near-term catalyst; mandatory transfer credit quota is an ongoing earnings support. Credit growth and NIM are stable. Revisions are near-flat (-0.8%). Retail interest is high (#3 Zalo, 8 mentions, 4B/1S). No SIF coverage. Watch on valuation support; re-rate to Buy if private placement pricing confirms favorable dilution math. |
| MBB | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | +0.2% | PE 8.1x (86th %ile 3Y), PB 1.59x (87th %ile 3Y) | DC analyst note flags valuation as "not cheap, lacking catalyst" — 1.3x forward PB at a 20% premium to tier-1 bank peers with only +18% earnings growth. Revisions are flat (+0.2%). Credit growth room of 35% is a positive outlier vs. peers. Key risk: RE developer loan share rose to ~11% from ~7%, with heavy 4Q25 disbursements that could pressure FY26 asset quality. Retail attention is strong (#2 Zalo, 9 mentions) but DC analyst is explicitly neutral. PE at 86th percentile vs. 3-year history is expensive on a relative basis. Watch. |
| PVS | Watch | Zalo-Top5, SIF (Hold) | +2.1% | PE 12.6x (15th %ile 3Y), PB 1.53x (90th %ile 3Y) | SIF downgraded to Hold (Jan-16) after +27% rally. Block B bookings and Qatar O&G bidding remain medium-term catalysts; 2026F revenue growth of +25% YoY is well-supported by M&C backlog. VCI_ENG is 35% above consensus median (VND 1,900bn vs. VND 1,407bn) — a meaningful outlier to watch. PE at 15th percentile looks inexpensive, but PB at 90th percentile reflects back-end loaded earnings recognition risk. Zalo retail interest is all-buy (4B/0S, #5). Watch; strong fundamental story but near-term upside captured in prior rally. |
| STB | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.1% | PE 21.0x (99th %ile 3Y), PB 2.09x (99th %ile 3Y) | Both PE and PB are at 99th percentile vs. 3-year history — the most expensive valuation in this universe by historical standards. The VAMC stake sale (32.3% of STB) is widely cited as a structural re-rating event but execution remains uncertain and consensus has tracked this thesis for multiple years without resolution. Revision is flat (+0.1%). Retail interest is moderate (#4 Zalo, 7 mentions). Neutral; a crowded speculative thesis at peak historical valuation multiples. |
| DGC | Reduce | Rev-Down | -24.3% | PE 9.8x (29th %ile 3Y), PB 1.96x (14th %ile 3Y) | HSC cuts -34% and explicitly turns "decidedly more cautious," citing a "complex near-term picture" with upside revised down from 30%+ to 16%; TP cut is among the most severe in the broker universe. VCI_ENG is less bearish (-14%), creating a dispersion of -20 percentage points between the two revising brokers. Market rumors of a regulatory investigation persist; HSC sensitivity analysis implies TP ~VND 80,000 even if ore license risk materializes. |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
Oil Tracker: Hormuz Disruptions
- Low trend for Hormuz flows. Estimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) based on reported vessel counts are down 19.4mb/d to 0.6mb/d (4-day moving average). - However, we reiterate that the latest unsmoothed daily data are highly uncertain and subject to revision given reports of vessels crossing the SoH without AIS signals. - We now only average through-the-prior-day data on oil tanker crossings from S&P Commodities at Sea and verified Bloomberg vessel count, as GPS jamming may... ---
USA: February Core CPI in Line With Expectations; Estimating 0.34% for February Core PCE
BOTTOM LINE: Core CPI increased 0.22% month-over-month in February, in line with expectations, and the year-over-year rate edged down to 2.46%. The rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) components slowed to 0.20% (vs. 0.23% in January) as the official CPI housing measures continue to catch down to the pace of new lease rent growth. Core services excluding rent, OER, and airfares inflation was 0.31%, below both its January pace of 0.39% and its average pace of 0.60% in 2025 (excluding October an... ---
Exogenous Shocks And Bond Returns
The default mode among investors is to fade exogenous shocks, whether geopolitical events, pandemics… and this for a simple reason: for 30 or more years most exogenous-shock-induced sell-offs made for a buying opportunity. The reason was obvious enough. From the mid-1980s onwards, the world was broadly deflationary, thanks to globalization, central bank independence, the emergence of China and the Japan bust. This meant that when something “bad” happened, policymakers could respond with easier f... ---
Oil Comment: Hormuz Price Scenarios
The report identifies significant upside risks to oil prices if Strait of Hormuz flow disruptions extend beyond the assumed 28-day normalization period. Using two analytical models, it estimates fair value Brent prices of $76-93/barrel depending on disruption length (30-60 days) once uncertainty abates, and flags potential for oil prices to exceed 2008-2022 peaks if the market rapidly prices in demand destruction during prolonged 120-day disruption scenarios. While the base case forecast remains unchanged at $66-70/barrel through 2027, the analysis underscores material upside vulnerability tied to the duration and market perception of Persian Gulf supply constraints. ---
USA: Existing Home Sales Above Expectations
Existing home sales rebounded 1.7% to 4.09 million units in February, exceeding expectations as the market normalized from January's weather-disrupted weakness, with single-family home sales particularly strong while prices remained relatively flat. Housing affordability is improving and attracting consumer demand, though inventory growth remains sluggish despite a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance to 4.4 months' supply. ---
US Daily: February CPI Preview
The report forecasts February core CPI at 0.17% monthly (+2.42% year-over-year), below consensus expectations, driven by softer auto and shelter inflation partially offset by tariff-related pressures in discretionary categories. Key disinflationary trends include declining used car prices and moderating shelter costs, while headline CPI faces upward pressure from higher food and energy prices. Going forward, monthly core CPI is expected to remain in the 0.2-0.3% range with upside risks from sustained oil prices and tariff impacts. ---
Japan: 2025Q4 Real GDP (Second Estimate) Revised Up to +1.3% QoQ Annualized, Mainly on Consumption and Capex
Japan's 2025Q4 real GDP growth was sharply revised upward to +1.3% quarter-on-quarter annualized (from +0.2%), driven by stronger-than-expected private consumption (+1.1%) and robust capital expenditure (+5.4%), reflecting sustained corporate investment in digitalization and efficiency improvements. All domestic final demand components were revised upward, confirming underlying economic strength despite inventory headwinds, with full-year 2025 growth also upgraded to 1.2%. ---
European Daily: Euro Area—A Model to Track the Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East on a High-Frequency Basis
Goldman Sachs developed a daily-updated growth forecasting model for the Euro area that tracks GDP implications of energy price and asset price shocks by combining their Current Activity Indicator with foreign growth, energy prices, and financial conditions data. The model's responses to various macro shocks align with historical patterns and have accurately tracked recent developments including the 2022 energy crisis and 2025 policy shifts. Since the onset of the Iran conflict in early February, the model indicates a 0.2 percentage point deterioration in Euro area 2026 growth outlook due to energy price movements and tightened financial conditions, validating Goldman Sachs' recent GDP forecast downgrade.