Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1676.73 (+23.97 pts, +1.45%) | VN30: 1836.96 (+3.16%) · Market Breadth: 258 advancers vs 88 decliners (ratio: 2.93) · Leaders: Materials (+5.38%), Consumer Disc (+4.78%), IT (+4.43%) · Laggards: Industrials (-0.07%), Real Estate (-0.99%), Utilities (-3.28%), Energy (-4.68%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND +1082.5bn · Top Buyer: HPG (+581.3bn) · Top Seller: STB (-387.0bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Fragile | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Churn | Sector bias: Narrowing
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,676.73 | +1.45% | 1,539.90 | 41,786.7 |
| VN30 | 1,836.96 | +3.16% | 696.50 | 24,347.6 |
| VN100 | 1,740.71 | +2.42% | 1,350.90 | 38,509.7 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| ABB | 0 | 100.00% |
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| REE | 108 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 469 | 100.00% |
| TCB | 157,967 | 99.99% |
| MBB | 533,900 | 99.97% |
| PNJ | 613,452 | 99.63% |
| SAV | 74,014 | 99.44% |
| FUEKIV30 | 1,448,300 | 99.24% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND +1082.5bn — very strong net buying
Top Net Buyers: HPG (+581.3bn), MWG (+561.6bn), FPT (+317.5bn), VNM (+222.2bn), BSR (+158.6bn)
Top Net Sellers: STB (-387.0bn), VIC (-185.7bn), VPB (-153.7bn), GEX (-125.3bn), VCI (-89.6bn)
Flow Breadth: 168 stocks bought vs 162 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -5610.3bn, 10d: VND -9797.4bn, 20d: VND -10372.5bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
Data Unavailable
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money Direction: Churn
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Narrowing — Extreme Capitulation
Stocks in Focus
STOCKS IN FOCUS — Morning Call | 10 March 2026
TABLE 1: CONFLUENCE PICKS
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | -6.8% | PE 13.5x (15th %ile 3Y), PB 1.61x (57th %ile 3Y) | Three-source convergence on a positive fundamental story: SIF cites rebar volume growth of 20% YoY with rising ASP, anti-dumping duty on HRC effective Mar-25 boosting 2H26 sales, and the Thu Lam project as a potential 10% market-cap upside catalyst. Broker consensus projects +33.9% NPATMI in 2026 to VND 21,841bn driven by Dung Quat 2 Blast Furnace No.2. Key conflict to flag: NPATMI revisions are net negative at -6.8% avg (BSC cut -21%), reflecting near-term risks from higher DQ2 depreciation and weaker steel export. PE at 15th percentile 3Y is a meaningful valuation support; the thesis holds if domestic demand and public investment execution stay on track. |
| GMD | Buy | SIF, Rev-Up | +27.9% | PE 17.9x (81st %ile 3Y), PB 2.33x (57th %ile 3Y) | Strongest revision number in the Rev-Up list at +27.9% avg across 4 brokers (ACBS +38%, VCI_ENG +28%, HSC +26%, SSI +19%), providing broad confirmation of the SIF Strong Buy thesis from Jan-07. Catalysts are well-defined: +10% deepwater port fee effective Feb-26, Sumitomo block sale overhang cleared, and rubber divestment as optional upside. TP of VND 79k implies meaningful upside at current levels. The one caveat is valuation: PE at 81st percentile 3Y is not cheap in absolute terms, though the SIF argues EV/EBITDA of 9.5x adjusted for Gemalink is reasonable. Earnings growth moderates to +4.3% in FY26E after a stronger FY25E, so this is a re-rating story, not a growth acceleration. |
| PNJ | Buy | Broker-Top5, Rev-Up | +31.9% | PE 13.6x (19th %ile 3Y), PB 2.92x (53rd %ile 3Y) | Second-largest revision upgrade in the universe at +31.9% avg with tight broker agreement (BVSC +31%, HSC +31%, SSI +33%), reflecting strong FY25 NPATMI beat of +33.78% YoY and continued FY26 growth expectations of 24-27%. PE at the 19th percentile 3Y is attractive for the growth on offer. The internal SIF was moved to Hold in Jan-26 after a 25% rally, and the current SIF TP of VND 127k (18% upside) was set with the caveat that the stock had already re-rated. Net read: broker conviction and revision momentum remain positive and valuation is not stretched; the SIF Hold reflects entry-point discipline rather than a thesis change. Catalyst near-term includes potential stock dividend (2:1 minimum) and new CEO. |
TABLE 2: SINGLE-SOURCE & MIXED SIGNALS
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANV | Accumulate | Rev-Up, SIF | +28.8% | PE 6.0x (10th %ile 3Y), PB 1.69x (68th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Jan-29 with 29% upside TP at VND 36k; the upgrade thesis rests on ASP panga recovery in 1Q26, tilapia market share gains, and forward PE of 6x versus 5Y sector avg of 9-10x. Revision data is positive (+28.8%) but sourced from only 1 broker (HSC). Technically qualifies as two-source but the low broker coverage depth limits conviction. Valuation at the 10th percentile PE is the strongest supporting factor. |
| VCI | Accumulate | SIF | +4.9% | PE 19.3x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 1.69x (1st %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Mar-03 with internal chatter pointing to 100% 2026 profit growth (DC forecast a more conservative 30%). IB pipeline of HPA, DMX, F88 secondary implies ~VND 215bn profit contribution, with potential upside from F88 HoSE listing. PB at the 1st percentile 3Y and PE at the 5th percentile are historically cheap. Revision data is thin (+4.9%, 1 broker). A confirmed FTSE March announcement would be the near-term catalyst to watch. Single-source for now but internal thesis quality is high. |
| MSH | Accumulate | SIF | N/A | PE 6.6x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 2.11x (77th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Feb-25 with TP VND 48,000 (23% upside) following 4Q25 actuals. PE at the 5th percentile 3Y is the most compelling valuation data point. No broker revision data available and no Zalo attention; conviction is anchored purely on the internal analyst call. Worth monitoring for broker pick-up. |
| MWG | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +11.8% | PE 17.0x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 3.65x (73rd %ile 3Y) | Highest broker coverage depth in the universe (8 brokers) with broadly positive revision of +11.8% avg and 2026 NPATMI growth consensus of ~21-28%. PE at 5th percentile 3Y is cheap relative to history. No SIF or Zalo signal. The BHX store expansion is the key incremental growth driver. Solid but unexciting near-term catalysts. |
| TNG | Accumulate | SIF | N/A | PE 7.1x (29th %ile 3Y), PB 1.45x (64th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Feb-11 with TP ~VND 28k on 15-20% earnings growth in 2026F. Trading at 6.5x 26F PER, 1 SD below 5Y avg per the SIF note. Trade policy uncertainty (US tariff risk on garments) is the key macro overhang explicitly flagged by the analyst. No broker revision data; single-source. |
| VHC | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +6.3% | PE 9.4x (32nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.34x (13th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Jan-29 with TP VND 74k (25% upside) and insider buying (~2.54%) plus share buybacks of 15mn shares ongoing. Revision is a modest +6.3% avg with one outlier (VCI_ENG +18% vs consensus). Differentiated coverage (Broker-Bottom5) adds potential re-rating angle if broader broker attention follows. Tariff pressure on US-bound panga exports is the key risk, though SIF notes this may ease in 2026. |
| VNM | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +2.0% | PE 13.8x (15th %ile 3Y), PB 4.23x (39th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Jan-28 with TP VND 78k; thesis centered on 15% YoY earnings growth in 1H26F on low base, 6.5% dividend yield, and EM reclassification re-rating potential. PE at 15th percentile 3Y is supportive. Revisions are near-flat (+2.0%, mixed across 3 brokers). Broker-Bottom5 placement suggests low institutional attention, which is consistent with the SCIC overhang. Patience required on catalysts. |
| CTI | Watch | Rev-Up | +50.7% | PE 9.1x (11th %ile 3Y), PB 0.88x (71st %ile 3Y) | Largest single-broker revision upgrade in the universe (+50.7%, BSC only). Thesis is straightforward: beneficiary of Vietnam's accelerating public investment in the Southern region via construction stone demand from Dong Nai quarries. Valuation is cheap (PE 11th percentile 3Y). Single broker, no SIF or Zalo signal — needs further coverage corroboration before conviction build. |
| TLG | Watch | Rev-Up | +24.2% | PE 11.1x (51st %ile 3Y), PB 2.0x (64th %ile 3Y) | Solid revision of +24.2% from HSC (sole broker). Valuation is mid-range on both PE and PB. No SIF thesis, no Zalo attention, and minimal detail on the earnings driver behind the upgrade. Insufficient information to rate constructively despite the revision size. Monitor for thesis clarity. |
| SSI | Watch | Broker-Top5 | -2.0% | PE 14.8x (2nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.94x (32nd %ile 3Y) | PE at the 2nd percentile 3Y is the standout data point — historically cheap. Market upgrade catalyst in Sep-26 is a medium-term positive and margin lending growth of 25% YoY is the near-term driver. Revisions are marginally negative (-2.0%, split between HSC +5% and SBBS -9%). No SIF signal. Attractive on valuation alone but needs a cleaner revision picture. |
| VCB | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | -0.8% | PE 14.3x (23rd %ile 3Y), PB 2.22x (5th %ile 3Y) | Retail attention is high (#3 on Zalo, 4B/1S sentiment). PB at the 5th percentile 3Y is notable. Key catalyst is the pending 6.5% private placement and credit growth quota from mandatory transfer. Revisions are flat (-0.8%). Zalo-only signal; no SIF or broker revision conviction. Long-term re-rating story on EM inclusion and private placement, but near-term trigger timing is uncertain. |
| MBB | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | +0.2% | PE 8.0x (85th %ile 3Y), PB 1.57x (86th %ile 3Y) | 35% credit growth quota assigned with no cap is a differentiated positive. NPATMI growth of 19-25% in 2026F is credible. However, PE and PB are both at elevated historical percentiles (85th and 86th), which limits the valuation case. Revisions are flat (+0.2%). Zalo attention is moderate (#2). Not cheap enough to build conviction without a sharper revision signal. |
| STB | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | +0.1% | PE 20.6x (99th %ile 3Y), PB 2.05x (99th %ile 3Y) | Both PE and PB at the 99th percentile 3Y — the most expensive stock in the universe on a relative-to-history basis. The VAMC 32.3% stake sale is a well-known structural catalyst but execution remains contingent. Revisions are flat. Zalo attention (#4) likely reflects retail speculation on the VAMC deal timeline rather than earnings fundamentals. Not a risk/reward setup suitable for PM portfolios at current levels. |
| PVD | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | +4.7% | PE 21.2x (49th %ile 3Y), PB 1.31x (99th %ile 3Y) | SIF downgraded from Buy to Hold in Jan-26 after a 29% rally. Internal analyst still views fundamentals positively (2026F NPATMI +40% YoY to VND 1,200bn). PB at the 99th percentile 3Y is a clear constraint. Revision is a modest +4.7%. Zalo attention (#5, 2B/1S) is likely momentum-driven post-rally. Hold the SIF rating; not a fresh entry at these PB levels. |
| MSN | Neutral | Broker-Top5 | +18.7% | PE 25.2x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 2.79x (2nd %ile 3Y) | PE at the 0th percentile 3Y is the cheapest reading in the universe on this metric. Average revision of +18.7% looks positive, but there is a significant out-of-consensus issue: HSC estimates VND 5,187bn versus median VND 6,711bn (-23%), reflecting deep disagreement on the recovery trajectory of WCM/MSR/MML. BVSC's +62% revision versus HSC's 0% represents the widest dispersion in the dataset. Debt repayment is a 2026 priority per management, which limits capital return optionality. |
| VHM | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | -2.5% | PE 9.0x (73rd %ile 3Y), PB 1.56x (74th %ile 3Y) | Presales growth expected to decelerate sharply from +69% YoY in 2025F to +9% in 2026F. NPATMI growth of 7% in 2026F is modest. Valuation is above mid-range historically on both PE and PB. Revisions are marginally negative (-2.5%). Infrastructure catalysts (VinSpeed metro and rail projects) provide a long-term narrative but near-term earnings visibility is limited. |
| VSC | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | N/A | PE 23.9x (72nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.51x (76th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from Dec-21 but TP was revised down following weaker-than-expected performance. Port fee approval is a sentiment positive shared with GMD. Valuation at 72nd/76th percentile PE/PB is not compelling. 2026 NPATMI growth of 15% is unexceptional at this valuation. Single broker (ACBS). No revision data. |
| VGT | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | N/A | PE 7.3x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 0.87x (25th %ile 3Y) | PE at the 0th percentile 3Y (cheapest versus own history in the dataset). Single broker, no SIF, no revision data, no Zalo. Cannot construct a thesis without earnings data or analyst notes. Flag for further diligence if liquidity and business model screen positively. |
| DGC | Reduce | Rev-Down | -24.3% | PE 9.5x (29th %ile 3Y), PB 1.91x (12th %ile 3Y) | NPATMI revision of -24.3% avg (HSC -34%, VCI_ENG -14%) combined with HSC's comparison report showing a "decidedly more cautious" stance — TP cut to the 16% upside range from prior 30%+, citing a "complex near-term picture" and limited ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Regulatory overhang from market rumors around a potential ore license investigation adds event risk. Valuation is not expensive enough to override these headwinds. |
| NKG | Reduce | Rev-Down | -33.9% | PE 30.3x (89th %ile 3Y), PB 0.82x (17th %ile 3Y) | Average revision of -33.9% with extreme broker disagreement (BSC -63% to a VND 62bn estimate vs HSC at VND 438bn, +75% above median). PE at the 89th percentile 3Y is expensive in a context of negative revisions. The wide dispersion flags deep uncertainty about the earnings base. Both signals point away from holding. |
| NVL | Reduce | Rev-Down | -26.4% | PE 12.4x (64th %ile 3Y), PB 0.52x (5th %ile 3Y) | NPATMI revision of -26.4% avg with significant broker disagreement (HSC -53% vs VCI_ENG flat). PB at the 5th percentile 3Y is |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
Oil Comment: Hormuz Price Scenarios
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USA: Existing Home Sales Above Expectations
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US Daily: February CPI Preview
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Japan: 2025Q4 Real GDP (Second Estimate) Revised Up to +1.3% QoQ Annualized, Mainly on Consumption and Capex
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European Daily: Euro Area—A Model to Track the Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East on a High-Frequency Basis
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China: Trade growth accelerated sharply in January-February
Bottom line: China's trade growth accelerated sharply in January-February (exports: +21.8% yoy, imports: +19.8% yoy) and came in well above consensus expectations. Chinese nominal exports to major trading partners rose sequentially in January-February. By product, export value rose broadly in sequential terms, with tech-related exports rising the most. Chinese imports from major trading partners (except the US, EU, and Africa) rose sequentially, and import value also rose across products, partl... ---
Exchange Rates And Oil Shocks
I define a large move in the price of oil as a change of more than 40% over the previous six months (since 1981, such a hefty change compares with a one standard deviation reading of 28.6%). In the chart below, these 40%+ oil price moves are denoted with green shaded areas. Let me begin by considering the behavior of the US dollar during such episodes of energy market volatility using the DXY index. Since 1973, almost all the green shaded periods announced a following rise in the DXY. We have j... ---
USA: GS Economic Indicators Update
Financial conditions tightened modestly in recent weeks as equity price declines drove the nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index down 19.2bp to 98.50, while the Current Activity Indicator slowed to +2.4% in February from +1.7% in January, suggesting a mild deceleration in economic momentum. Q1 GDP growth is forecasted at a solid 3.4% (annualized), though economic surprises have turned slightly negative at -0.1, indicating data is coming in roughly in line with or slightly below expectations. Labor market strength and manufacturing activity remain supported, though wage growth and inflation metrics warrant continued monitoring as the Fed navigates its policy path.