Monday, March 9, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1652.79 (-115.09 pts, -6.51%) | VN30: 1780.71 (-6.48%) · Market Breadth: 11 advancers vs 366 decliners (ratio: 0.03) · Leaders: Healthcare (-2.39%), Energy (-5.29%), Industrials (-5.98%) · Laggards: Healthcare (-2.39%), Energy (-5.29%), Industrials (-5.98%), Materials (-6.29%), Consumer Staples (-6.41%), Financials (-6.44%), Utilities (-6.58%), Real Estate (-6.84%), Consumer Disc (-6.87%), IT (-6.97%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -277.9bn · Top Buyer: MWG (+138.5bn) · Top Seller: VHM (-176.3bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Distribution | Sentiment: Fearful | Money direction: Outflow | Sector bias: Narrowing
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,652.79 | 6.51% | 1,383.70 | 41,120.0 |
| VN30 | 1,780.71 | 6.48% | 794.70 | 26,596.4 |
| VN100 | 1,699.60 | 6.50% | 1,220.20 | 38,171.5 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| REE | 108 | 100.00% |
| ABB | 100 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 800 | 100.00% |
| MBB | 919,700 | 99.95% |
| TCB | 1,650,127 | 99.90% |
| SAV | 74,014 | 99.44% |
| PNJ | 1,075,652 | 99.36% |
| FUEKIV30 | 1,448,300 | 99.24% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -277.9bn — moderate net selling
Top Net Buyers: MWG (+138.5bn), VNM (+120.3bn), SHS (+106.9bn), BSR (+101.7bn), GAS (+70.2bn)
Top Net Sellers: VHM (-176.3bn), FPT (-161.4bn), STB (-160.6bn), PLX (-117.3bn), HPG (-84.1bn)
Flow Breadth: 172 stocks bought vs 186 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -7507.5bn, 10d: VND -10693.3bn, 20d: VND -12073.4bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money direction: Outflow
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Narrowing — Extreme Capitulation Reached
Stocks in Focus
# Stocks in Focus — Morning Call | 2026-03-09
Table 1: Confluence Picks
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | −6.8% | PE 12.6x (9th %ile 3Y), PB 1.51x (27th %ile 3Y) | Three-source convergence with strong structural thesis. SIF (minhbui, 03-Mar) highlights rebar volume growth of +20% YoY, AD measures on HRC arriving Mar-25 boosting 2H26 sales, EM inclusion flow, and the Thu Lam project adding ~VND 20,000bn profit over two years (~10% of market cap). Broker consensus projects NPATMI of VND 21,841bn in 2026 (+33.9% YoY), driven primarily by Dung Quat 2 Blast Furnace No.2 ramping up. Valuation is at the 9th percentile on PE — historically cheap. The key caveat is a modest −6.8% average revision, with BSC cutting estimates by −21% on higher depreciation and weaker export assumptions; the broad-based consensus (7 brokers) partially offsets this divergence. Zalo sentiment is clean at 2B/0S. Net assessment: cheap valuation + multi-source positive alignment + specific near-term catalysts outweigh the near-term revision headwind. |
| GMD | Buy | SIF, Rev-Up | +27.9% | PE 18.2x (85th %ile 3Y), PB 2.37x (60th %ile 3Y) | Strongest revision in the universe at +27.9% avg across 4 brokers (ACBS +38%, VCI_ENG +28%, HSC +26%, SSI +19%), all directionally aligned — no outlier risk. SIF (quanpham, 07-Jan) upgraded to Strong Buy citing deepwater port fee hike approval (+10% effective Feb-26), an 18% share price pullback from Sep-25 highs, attractive adjusted EV/EBITDA of 9.5x, and absorption of the 19mn-share block from SSJ Consulting. Mid-term upside from rubber divestment remains. The only flag is valuation: PE at the 85th percentile vs. 3-year history is stretched, and FY26E EPS growth is modest at 4.3% after a 16.5% year in FY25. The revision upgrade likely reflects the fee hike being more material than initially modeled. Buy on revision momentum and fee hike flow-through; size positions with awareness of the valuation premium. |
| PNJ | Buy | Broker-Top5, Rev-Up | +31.9% | PE 12.7x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 2.74x (37th %ile 3Y) | Second-largest positive revision in the universe at +31.9% avg, with all three revising brokers tightly aligned (BVSC +31%, HSC +31%, SSI +33%) — high confidence signal. FY25 NPATMI came in at +33.78% YoY; brokers project +24–27% growth in FY26 supported by rising gold prices and improving consumer sentiment. PE at the 5th percentile vs. 3-year history is a strong valuation anchor. The one conflict: internal SIF rating is Hold (lyvu, 16-Jan) after the stock rallied +25% from the Oct-25 Buy call; SIF's stated TP is VND 127k (+18% upside at time of writing) and notes pending catalysts of a high-ratio stock dividend (≥2:1) and new CEO. The SIF Hold reflects price performance, not fundamental deterioration — broker conviction and revision momentum are clearly positive. Net: external signals override the cautious internal view; accumulate on dips toward current levels. |
Table 2: Single-Source & Mixed Signals
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCI | Accumulate | SIF | +4.9% | PE 19.1x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 1.67x (1st %ile 3Y) | Fresh SIF Buy (Thaodien, 03-Mar) with a high-conviction internal thesis: internal chatter pointing to 100% 2026 NPATMI growth vs. a conservative 30% forecast; IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88) contributing ~VND 215bn; potential upside from a VND 5tn "Others" investment income category. PB at the 1st percentile is a standout valuation signal. Broker revision is only +4.9% (1 broker), limiting confluence score. FTSE March announcement is a near-term catalyst. Watch for IB deal closures as confirmation. |
| MSH | Accumulate | SIF | n/a | PE 6.2x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 1.98x (54th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (quanpham, 25-Feb) with TP lifted to VND 48,000 (+23% upside) following 4Q25 actual results. PE at the 0th percentile vs. 3-year history is the cheapest in the entire universe on this metric. No broker revision data available to confirm earnings direction. Single-source, but valuation and a freshly updated SIF thesis post-results are meaningful. |
| ANV | Accumulate | Rev-Up (SIF confirming) | +28.8% | PE 6.1x (11th %ile 3Y), PB 1.73x (72nd %ile 3Y) | Revision of +28.8% from HSC and a confirming SIF Buy (huyennguyen, 29-Jan) citing ASP pangasius recovery in 1Q26, tilapia market share expansion, and 20–25% NPATMI growth in 2026F. PE of 6.1x vs. VHC's 5-year average of 11x makes the discount compelling. Rated single-source (only 1 revising broker) and thin broker coverage (2 total), capping confidence. Treat as Accumulate rather than Buy until additional broker coverage emerges. |
| TNG | Accumulate | SIF | n/a | PE 7.0x (24th %ile 3Y), PB 1.42x (56th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (quanpham, 11-Feb) initiating at TP ~VND 28k on 15–20% YoY earnings growth in 2026F and 6.5x FY26 PE — 1 SD below the 5-year average. No broker revision data. Key risk is trade policy uncertainty (tariff exposure via garment exports). Good risk/reward at current valuation but needs a catalyst or revision confirmation to move higher in conviction. |
| MWG | Watch | Broker-Top5 | +11.8% | PE 16.1x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 3.47x (62nd %ile 3Y) | Highest broker coverage count in the universe (8 brokers), with a solid +11.8% average revision and broad alignment (6 brokers revising, all positive). BHX expansion is the 2026 growth driver alongside stable contributions from TGDD and DMX. PE near the 5th percentile is supportive. However, no SIF pick and no Zalo traction. Watch for entry; the confluence count is just short of Buy territory without internal confirmation. |
| SSI | Watch | Broker-Top5 | −2.0% | PE 14.7x (1st %ile 3Y), PB 1.91x (29th %ile 3Y) | PE at the 1st percentile is attractive. Growth thesis of +20–21% NPATMI in 2026F rests on +10% market volume and +25% margin lending balance. FTSE upgrade in Sep-26 is a medium-term catalyst. Revision is marginally negative at −2.0% (HSC +5% vs. SBBS −9%), providing no directional signal. No SIF pick. A clean Watch — cheap but needs a positive revision to act. |
| MSN | Watch | Broker-Top5 | +18.7% | PE 25.2x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 2.79x (1st %ile 3Y) | Both PE and PB at or near the 0th–1st percentile — historically cheapest the stock has traded in 3 years. Revision average is +18.7%, but dominated by BVSC's +62% outlier; HSC is flat and SSI is −6%. HSC's NPATMI estimate of VND 5,187bn is −23% below the median of VND 6,711bn — a meaningful out-of-consensus flag. Recovery thesis (WCM, MSR, MML) is promising but dispersion is too wide to act with conviction. |
| VHC | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF confirming) | +6.3% | PE 9.1x (28th %ile 3Y), PB 1.29x (5th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (huyennguyen, 29-Jan) and modest +6.3% average revision (3 brokers). VCI_ENG is +18% vs. the median — a mild out-of-consensus upside flag. Insider buying (~2.54%) and a 15mn-share buyback (~6.7%) in 2026 are positive technical signals. Thin broker coverage keeps this at Watch; pangasius ASP trajectory in 1Q26 is the key data point to monitor. |
| VNM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF confirming) | +2.0% | PE 12.9x (2nd %ile 3Y), PB 3.96x (22nd %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (quanpham, 28-Jan) with TP VND 78k, emphasizing 15% YoY earnings recovery in 1H26F on a low base, 6.5% dividend yield, and EM reclassification re-rating potential. PE at the 2nd percentile is very cheap vs. history. Revision is only +2.0% (mixed: ACBS −3%, BVSC +4%, SSI +5%) — insufficient to confirm a turning earnings cycle. Defensive/yield play with EM upgrade optionality; watch for GT channel recovery data. |
| CTI | Watch | Rev-Up | +50.7% | PE 9.0x (10th %ile 3Y), PB 0.88x (69th %ile 3Y) | Largest revision in the Rev-Up list at +50.7%, but from a single broker (BSC only) with no SIF coverage, no Zalo mention, and no additional broker confirmation. Public investment cycle tailwind for construction stone in Southern Vietnam is a credible macro theme. Very low coverage limits actionability. |
| TLG | Watch | Rev-Up | +24.2% | PE 10.7x (36th %ile 3Y), PB 1.92x (49th %ile 3Y) | +24.2% revision from HSC alone. No SIF, no Zalo, no thesis detail available. Valuation is fair-to-neutral vs. history. Single-source upgrade warrants monitoring but insufficient data to act. |
| VSC | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF confirming) | n/a | PE 24.7x (78th %ile 3Y), PB 1.57x (81st %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (quanpham, 21-Dec) with TP revised down on weaker-than-expected performance; money flow expected to return on VGR stake divestment gain and deepwater port fee approvals. Valuation is stretched (PE 78th, PB 81st percentile). The SIF thesis itself flags a downgrade to TP — a cautionary signal. Neutral-to-watch until divestment gain is confirmed. |
| VHM | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | −2.5% | PE 8.8x (73rd %ile 3Y), PB 1.54x (71st %ile 3Y) | Single broker (Vietcap) covering, with a modest −2.5% average revision. FY26F NPAT-MI growth of only +7% is a significant deceleration from 2025. Presales growth projection of +9% YoY in FY26 is reasonable but unexciting relative to valuation at the 73rd percentile on PE. Infrastructure catalysts (metro, rail proposals) are long-dated. No SIF, no Zalo. |
| MBB | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.2% | PE 7.5x (81st %ile 3Y), PB 1.47x (82nd %ile 3Y) | Top retail mention (#1, 6 mentions, 2B/0S) and solid 2026F growth thesis (+25% NPATMI, 35% credit growth room). However, PE and PB are both at the 81st–82nd percentile — not cheap vs. history. Revision is flat (+0.2%). The NPL reclassification-driven 4Q25 recovery is a one-time boost; sustainable credit-cycle growth needs monitoring. Retail attention without valuation support limits conviction. |
| PVS | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +2.1% | PE 12.9x (17th %ile 3Y), PB 1.56x (93rd %ile 3Y) | SIF Hold (danvu, 16-Jan) post a +27% rally. Retail sentiment is strong (#4, 4 mentions, 4B/0S). 2026F revenue growth of +25% YoY with Block B bookings is a real catalyst, but PB at the 93rd percentile is a significant valuation concern. VCI_ENG's +30% estimate vs. the median is a wide out-of-consensus call that inflates the average revision. Net: interesting story, but wait for a pullback given extended PB. |
| PVD | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +4.7% | PE 21.2x (49th %ile 3Y), PB 1.30x (99th %ile 3Y) | SIF Hold (danvu, 16-Jan) after +29% rally. PB at the 99th percentile vs. 3-year history is the most stretched valuation in the entire universe. 2026F NPATMI of ~VND 1,200bn (+40% YoY) from PVD 8/9 and optionality on PVD 10 acquisition are positive. Retail mentions are mixed (2B/1S). Revision is thin at +4.7%. Fundamentals are improving but price has run well ahead. |
| PLX | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | 0.0% | PE 27.2x (90th %ile 3Y), PB 2.81x (97th %ile 3Y) | DC IRIS note (Negative) flags a critical near-term operational risk: NSR (40% of domestic supply) has only secured 25% of April feedstock and may cut utilization to 30–50% within 1–2 weeks. Imports are heavily restricted. This directly contradicts the retail bullish sentiment (#2, 6 mentions, 4B/0S) and the SOE reform re-rating thesis. Valuation at the 90th/97th percentile on PE/PB adds further caution. The IRIS note is the most actionable negative signal in today's data. |
| VGT | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | n/a | PE 7.1x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 0.84x (13th %ile 3Y) | Single broker (SBBS), no thesis detail, no revisions, no SIF, no Zalo. PE at the 0th percentile is notable but insufficient without any earnings direction signal. Flag for investigation. |
| NVL | Reduce | Rev-Down | −26.4% | PE 12.2x (63rd %ile 3Y), PB 0.52x (4th %ile 3Y) |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
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Japan: January Wages: Basic Wage Growth Rises Sharply, Real Wages Turn Positive; Trend Unchanged on "Same Sample" Basis
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Japan: BOP: Jan. Foreigners Spending Up YoY for First Time in Three Months; Foreigners Continue Large Net Purchases of Japanese Securities in Feb.
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Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Global Financial Conditions Continue to Tighten
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China: February CPI inflation jumped on late Lunar New Year holiday; revising up our CPI/PPI inflation forecast
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