Thursday, March 5, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1808.51 (-9.82 pts, -0.54%) | VN30: 1942.76 (-0.7%) · Market Breadth: 153 advancers vs 185 decliners (ratio: 0.83) · Leaders: Real Estate (+3.71%), Healthcare (-0.62%), Financials (-0.65%) · Laggards: Healthcare (-0.62%), Financials (-0.65%), IT (-0.78%), Industrials (-0.98%), Consumer Staples (-1.31%), Materials (-1.69%), Consumer Disc (-3.1%), Utilities (-3.51%), Energy (-5.6%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -3233.9bn · Top Buyer: KDH (+123.6bn) · Top Seller: FPT (-573.1bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Fragile | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Outflow | Sector bias: Narrowing
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,808.51 | 0.54% | 1,127.50 | 35,422.2 |
| VN30 | 1,942.76 | 0.70% | 445.50 | 17,841.7 |
| VN100 | 1,850.66 | 0.32% | 977.70 | 31,823.1 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| TCB | 0 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| ABB | 1,300 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 800 | 100.00% |
| REE | 4,640 | 100.00% |
| MBB | 1,978,979 | 99.89% |
| SAV | 74,314 | 99.44% |
| PNJ | 1,268,256 | 99.24% |
| FUEKIV30 | 1,447,800 | 99.24% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -3233.9bn — heavy net selling
Top Net Buyers: KDH (+123.6bn), DPM (+67.8bn), TCX (+30.8bn), DGW (+25.8bn), MBB (+21.1bn)
Top Net Sellers: FPT (-573.1bn), HPG (-289.8bn), VHM (-225.1bn), SSI (-184.2bn), PVS (-145.9bn)
Flow Breadth: 106 stocks bought vs 205 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -5111.7bn, 10d: VND -10016.4bn, 20d: VND -12164.9bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money direction: Outflow
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Narrowing / Rotating
Stocks in Focus
# Stocks in Focus — Morning Call | 2026-03-05
Table 1: Confluence Picks
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | –6.8% | PE 13.5x (15th %ile), PB 1.62x (60th %ile) | Three-source convergence with a coherent fundamental thesis: rebar volume +20% YoY, Dung Quat 2 blast furnace adding to steel revenue, and anti-dumping duties on HRC from March 2025 expected to redirect domestic volumes in 2H26. SIF targets the Thu Lam project as a discrete catalyst worth ~VND 20,000bn profit over two years (~10% of market cap). PE at 15th percentile vs. 3-year history provides valuation support. The key caveat is the –6.8% average NPATMI revision (driven mainly by BSC at –21%), reflecting near-term headwinds from higher Dung Quat 2 depreciation and softer export. FTSE EM inclusion flow is a secondary positive. Net-net, the structural volume and ASP recovery story is intact; the revision drag is a risk to monitor. |
| GMD | Buy | SIF, Rev-Up | +27.9% | PE 19.4x (95th %ile), PB 2.52x (72nd %ile) | Strongest NPATMI revision in this morning's universe at +27.9% average across four brokers (ACBS +38%, VCI_ENG +28%, HSC +26%, SSI +19%), providing broad confirmation of the SIF Strong Buy thesis. Key catalysts are the approved +10% deepwater port fee hike effective February 2026 and the removal of overhang from Sumitomo's 19mn-share block sale. SIF TP of VND 79,000. The material caveat is valuation: PE at 95th percentile and PB at 72nd percentile versus 3-year history mean the stock is pricing in much of the good news. Investors should size positions accordingly and treat the revision momentum as the primary signal rather than valuation expansion. |
| PNJ | Buy | Broker-Top5, Rev-Up | +31.9% | PE 13.9x (28th %ile), PB 2.98x (59th %ile) | Second-largest positive revision in the universe at +31.9% average (BVSC +31%, HSC +31%, SSI +33%) with tight broker consensus — unusually low dispersion across three houses. IRIS note confirms 1Q26 momentum: January 2026 NPATMI reached VND 700bn with total sales +85% YoY, driven partly by Tet timing. DC SIF is currently at Hold (raised from Buy after a 25% rally since October), with TP revised up to VND 127,000 (18% upside). The tension between the SIF Hold and the broker upgrade cycle is worth noting — SIF's caution is valuation-based after the rally, not earnings-based. PE at 28th percentile and PB at 59th percentile suggest the re-rating is not yet stretched. Stock dividend at a minimum 2:1 ratio is an additional near-term catalyst. |
| VCI | Buy | SIF, Zalo-Top5 | +4.9% | PE 21.9x (12th %ile), PB 1.91x (12th %ile) | Both PE and PB sit at the 12th percentile of the 3-year range — the most compelling valuation case among financials in this universe. SIF Buy (03-Mar-26) cites 30% forecast earnings growth, an IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88 secondary) contributing ~VND 215bn, and FTSE EM inclusion announcement in March as a near-term catalyst. Internal guidance points to up to 100% growth, though DC's own forecast is a more conservative 30%. Zalo mentions are high (10) with a 4B/3S split — retail is engaged but with some skepticism. The NPATMI revision is modest at +4.9% from a single broker (HSC), which is the key gap: broker consensus has not yet caught up to SIF's bullish view. Conviction here rests heavily on the SIF thesis and valuation; investors should watch for additional broker upgrades as a confirming signal. |
Table 2: Single-Source & Mixed Signals
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANV | Accumulate | Rev-Up (SIF supporting) | +28.8% | PE 6.8x (13th %ile), PB 1.93x (79th %ile) | SIF Buy from January (TP VND 36,000, 29% upside) with a +28.8% revision from HSC. PE at 13th percentile is attractive, though the revision comes from a single broker. Tilapia market share expansion and panga ASP recovery in 1Q26 are the key drivers. PB at 79th percentile is the one valuation flag. Warrants upgrading to Confluence Pick if a second broker confirms. |
| MWG | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +11.8% | PE 17.8x (5th %ile), PB 3.84x (85th %ile) | Broadest broker coverage in this universe (8 houses) with a +11.8% average revision — decent confirmation of the BHX expansion and continued TGDD/DMX earnings contribution thesis. PE at 5th percentile is very cheap relative to history, though PB at 85th percentile reflects the asset-light retail model. No SIF coverage or IRIS note to add conviction. Single-source but high broker breadth. |
| MSN | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +18.7% | PE 27.8x (0th %ile), PB 3.08x (8th %ile) | SSI upgrades to Buy, citing a 2026 P/E of 17.9x versus historical highs near 75x and earnings that could beat high-case guidance. The 0th-percentile PE is the most historically cheap reading in this universe. However, there is meaningful broker dispersion: BVSC revised up +62% while HSC made no change and SSI revised down –6% — the out-of-consensus HSC estimate (VND 5,187bn vs. median VND 6,711bn, –23%) is a flag. WCM store expansion to 1,000 new locations and debt repayment focus are operational catalysts. Mixed revision quality limits conviction. |
| HAH | Watch | Zalo-Top5 | +15.0% | PE 8.8x (46th %ile), PB 2.38x (84th %ile) | SSI upgrades to Buy, citing structural tightness in feeder markets and continued earnings strength, explicitly departing from prior consensus that expected 2026 normalization. SSI's estimate of VND 1,428bn is +26% above the broker median of VND 1,132bn — a notable out-of-consensus call. Zalo sentiment is entirely bullish (6B/0S). However, there is only one broker covering and no SIF or IRIS confirmation. Valuation is middling at 46th percentile PE but stretched at 84th percentile PB. Monitor for additional broker coverage initiation. |
| TLG | Watch | Rev-Up | +24.2% | PE 11.4x (60th %ile), PB 2.06x (70th %ile) | Positive IRIS note: January 2026 revenue VND 284bn (+85% YoY, though base was depressed by early Tet in 2025) and a second cash dividend of 25% with ex-date 12-March. Single-broker revision (+24% from HSC). Valuation is mid-range on both metrics. The Tet base effect makes the revenue figure less meaningful on a run-rate basis per the analyst note. Income-oriented investors should note the March dividend date. |
| VHC | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF supporting) | +6.3% | PE 10.0x (39th %ile), PB 1.43x (28th %ile) | SIF Buy (January 2026) with TP VND 74,000 (25% upside) and insider buying plus buyback activity. However, the most recent broker report (BVSC) maintains a Neutral stance with only 11.8% upside, highlighting competitive risks in the US market and modest 2026 growth. VCI_ENG is the outlier at +18% revision and VND 1,769bn vs. median VND 1,534bn. Mixed broker signals and the BVSC neutral report temper the SIF conviction. |
| VNM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF supporting) | +2.0% | PE 14.0x (21st %ile), PB 4.3x (46th %ile) | SIF Buy (January 2026) with TP VND 78,000, citing a 15% YoY earnings recovery in 1H26F on a low base and 6.5% dividend yield. PE at 21st percentile is cheap. The NPATMI revision is essentially flat (+2.0% average) and the growth thesis (FY26E EPS +5.8%) is modest, suggesting the re-rating case rests more on EM inclusion flows and SCIC divestment optionality than earnings momentum. Low conviction from revisions. |
| MSH | Watch | SIF | n/a | PE 6.9x (10th %ile), PB 2.21x (87th %ile) | SIF Buy (February 2026) with TP VND 48,000 (23% upside) following 4Q25 actual results. PE at 10th percentile is attractive. No broker revision data, no IRIS detail beyond the SIF note, and no Zalo or broker list appearance. Insufficient external confirmation to build conviction; flag for monitoring if earnings detail becomes available. |
| TNG | Watch | SIF | n/a | PE 8.0x (44th %ile), PB 1.63x (80th %ile) | SIF Buy (February 2026) targeting VND 28,000, citing 15–20% earnings growth and PE at 1 standard deviation below the 5-year average. Trade policy uncertainty (tariff risk on garment exports) is the stated overhang. No revision data or broker list appearance beyond one RES coverage. Single-source; thesis is reasonable but unconfirmed. |
| CTI | Watch | Rev-Up | +50.7% | PE 10.1x (26th %ile), PB 0.98x (88th %ile) | Largest percentage revision in the Rev-Up list at +50.7%, but from a single broker (BSC). Public investment cycle and Southern Vietnam construction stone demand are the stated catalysts. PB at 88th percentile vs. history is elevated. No SIF or IRIS confirmation. High revision from one source warrants monitoring but not action yet. |
| VSC | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 (SIF supporting) | n/a | PE 28.1x (92nd %ile), PB 1.78x (88th %ile) | SIF revised its TP down in December 2025 on weaker-than-expected performance, though the port fee hike and VGR stake sale divestment gain are cited as re-engagement catalysts. Both PE (92nd percentile) and PB (88th percentile) are historically expensive. The fee hike benefits VSC sentimentally but operationally it is a more direct catalyst for GMD. Neutral pending earnings confirmation. |
| VGT | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | n/a | PE 8.5x (8th %ile), PB 1.01x (70th %ile) | Differentiated coverage (single broker, SBBS). PE at 8th percentile is cheap. No thesis data, no revisions, no SIF or IRIS notes. Low information content; flag for further research. |
| VHM | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | –2.5% | PE 9.5x (76th %ile), PB 1.65x (79th %ile) | Modest negative revision (–2.5%) with divergent broker views (HSC –8%, SSI +3%). Vietcap's coverage highlights deceleration in presales growth (9% YoY in 2026F vs. 69% in 2025F). Infrastructure catalysts (metro lines, high-speed rail) are longer-dated. Valuation not cheap at 76th and 79th percentiles. |
| SSI | Neutral | Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | –7.5% | PE 16.7x (31st %ile), PB 2.19x (66th %ile) | High retail attention (#1 on Zalo, 11 mentions, 7B/1S) and top broker coverage (5 houses), but the revision is negative at –7.5% average with significant dispersion (HSC +5%, SBBS –9%, VCI_ENG –18%). EM inclusion in September 2026 is the primary catalyst. No SIF or IRIS coverage. Mixed revisions prevent a positive rating despite the market upgrade narrative. |
| POW | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.4% | PE 18.2x (12th %ile), PB 1.25x (98th %ile) | Second-most-mentioned stock on Zalo (10 mentions, 7B/1S) but the data is weak: revision is flat (+0.4%), and PB sits at the 98th percentile of the 3-year range — the most stretched PB in the universe. PE at 12th percentile is deceptive given the PB signal. No SIF or broker list appearance. Retail enthusiasm not supported by fundamentals here. |
| NVL | Reduce | Rev-Down | –26.4% | PE 12.9x (65th %ile), PB 0.55x (8th %ile) | Average NPATMI revision of –26.4%, though with wide dispersion (HSC –53%, VCI_ENG 0%). The HSC estimate implies severe earnings deterioration. PB at 8th percentile may attract value-oriented attention, but this is consistent with distressed real estate balance sheets rather than a value signal. No positive offsetting signals. |
| NKG | Reduce | Rev-Down | –33.9% | PE 31.8x (90th %ile), PB 0.86x (25th %ile) | Extreme broker dispersion (BSC –63% at VND 62bn vs. HSC +75% at VND 438bn vs. median VND 250bn) signals high earnings uncertainty. PE at 90th percentile is expensive. The downward revision average of –33.9% and the elevated valuation make this unattractive. |
| PPC | Reduce | Rev-Down | –38.8% | PE 19.3x (99th %ile), PB 0.74x (10th %ile) | Single-broker cut of –38.8% (VCI_ENG). PE at the 99th percentile — the most expensive PE reading in this universe relative to history. The combination of a steep downward revision and the highest historical PE percentile is a clear negative signal. |
| CRE | Avoid | Rev-Down | –48.9% | PE 43.3x (23rd %ile), PB 0.57x (9th %ile) | The steepest single-stock revision cut in the universe at –48.9% (HSC). PE of 43.3x despite low absolute earnings signals a severely impaired earnings base. PB at 9th percentile reflects asset quality concerns rather than value. No offsetting positive signals. |
| HAX | Avoid | Rev-Down | –68.0% | PE 209.4x (97th %ile), PB 1.07x (6th %ile) | The most negative revision in the entire universe at –68.0% (HSC). PE of 209.4x at the 97th percentile renders the stock uninvestable on any fundamental basis. No positive signals from any source. |
Key Takeaways
- GMD and PNJ offer the cleanest positive signal convergence: GMD has the broadest and most consistent earnings upgrade (+27.9% across 4 brokers) while PNJ combines a +31.9% average revision with strong IRIS confirmation of 1Q26 momentum; both have valuation headroom at below-60th-percentile PE.
- HPG remains the highest-profile multi-source idea but carries a revision drag: The –6.8% average NPATMI cut (BSC alone accounts for –21%) is the key risk
Broker Research
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Macro Research
USA: Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Increase More Than Expected; Import Prices Slightly Below Expectations; Initial Claims in Line With Expectations; Estimating 0.39% for February Core PCE
BOTTOM LINE: Nonfarm productivity increased by 2.8% in Q4 (quarter-over-quarter annualized), above expectations. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.2%, or 2.0-2.1% after adjusting for measurement distortions in the productivity statistics, a much stronger pace than the 1.5% average pace in the pre-pandemic cycle. Core import prices rose 0.4%, likely reflecting the lagged effect of dollar depreciation over the last few months but still slightly below expectation... ---
US Daily: February Payrolls Preview
- We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 45k in February, below consensus of +55k. On the negative side, we expect a 31k drag from newly striking workers and a modest headwind from poor winter weather after it likely boosted January payroll growth. Additionally, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 5k decline in federal government payrolls that is offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. The big data indicators we track were mixed in February. On the positiv... ---
Japan: 2026 Shunto Spring Wage Negotiations: Unions Request Slightly Below That of 2025, but Still High
BOTTOM LINE: The wage hike request for the 2026 shunto wage negotiations released by JTUC-RENGO showed a base pay rise of 4.4%, slightly falling short of last year's 4.5%, but a high level nonetheless. By size, labor unions with fewer than 300 members requested a base pay rise of 5.1%, higher than 4.2% requested by unions with 1,000 or more members. As we had expected wage hike requests to be around the same level as last year, the released figures are in line with our expectations. We continue ... ---
Global Markets Daily: European FX and the Energy Price Surge
- Energy supply disruptions have led to an unfavourable combination of higher energy prices and weaker risk sentiment, with the sharp rise in European natural gas prices especially in focus for European currencies. - In this note, we take stock of European FX performance so far this week, benchmarking it against both historical sensitivities to gas and equity prices and the 2022 gas supply shock. Overall, we find the relative price action (including the underperformance of CEE currencies, led b... ---
China: Two Sessions Comment 1: 2026 government policy targets largely as expected
Bottom line: The 2026 National People’s Congress (NPC) started today (5 March) and will conclude on 12 March. Earlier in the morning, Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report (GWR) and announced key economic targets and fiscal budget parameters for this year. 2026 GDP growth, inflation, and official fiscal deficit targets are in line with our and market expectations, while the quotas for central and local government special bond issuance are slightly below our expectations. In the ... ---
Injurious Exposure
Reassured by the stabilization of European and US markets, Asian equities rallied Thursday following the previous day’s bruising falls. The notable laggard was India, where after the slide of the last week, the Sensex index remains down -7% from its early January high. Indian equities already looked expensive compared to markets elsewhere in Asia, with uninspiring prospects for earnings growth. Now, this latest round of underperformance reflects India’s disproportionately high vulnerability to a... ---
Policy Challenges Around The World
Over the past couple of years, voters in the US, Japan, the Netherlands and Italy have handed electoral mandates to so-called “populist” politicians who, a generation ago, likely would not have been taken seriously as credible candidates. In Britain, recent polls suggest a similar result could be in the cards at the next general election. France looks to be on the same track. So far, financial markets have largely shrugged it off and, in some cases, even welcomed these outcomes. Yes, OECD govern... ---
Oil Analyst: Raising Our Price Forecast on Lower OECD Inventories Amidst Hormuz Disruptions
Oil analysts are raising 2026 price forecasts significantly due to Middle East supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, projecting Brent at $76/bbl (up from $66) as OECD inventories decline sharply and storage approaches congestion. While prices are expected to gradually decline to $66 by late 2026 as disruptions fade and stocks replenish, upside risks remain substantial—extended Hormuz disruptions could push Brent to $100 and trigger demand destruction. The forecast reflects a $13 geopolitical risk premium that will gradually fade as supply normalizes.