Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1818.27 (+5.08 pts, +0.28%) | VN30: 1956.53 (-0.14%) · Market Breadth: 90 advancers vs 250 decliners (ratio: 0.36) · Leaders: Energy (+4.58%), Consumer Staples (+0.17%), Healthcare (+0.06%) · Laggards: Real Estate (-0.11%), Consumer Disc (-0.16%), Financials (-0.25%), Utilities (-0.88%), Materials (-0.96%), IT (-2.01%), Industrials (-2.51%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -1788.1bn · Top Buyer: VCI (+194.7bn) · Top Seller: FPT (-393.0bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Distribution | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Churn | Sector bias: Narrowing
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,818.27 | +0.28% | 1,581.20 | 48,263.1 |
| VN30 | 1,956.53 | 0.14% | 631.80 | 24,312.5 |
| VN100 | 1,856.66 | 0.44% | 1,342.70 | 43,046.0 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| VNZ | 0 | 100.00% |
| TCB | 0 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| ABB | 1,300 | 100.00% |
| REE | 4,565 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 21,074 | 99.96% |
| MBB | 1,403,109 | 99.93% |
| SAV | 74,314 | 99.44% |
| FUEKIV30 | 1,444,900 | 99.24% |
| PNJ | 1,268,256 | 99.24% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -1788.1bn — heavy net selling
Top Net Buyers: VCI (+194.7bn), DCM (+91.9bn), VCB (+82.5bn), HCM (+69.4bn), CTG (+61.0bn)
Top Net Sellers: FPT (-393.0bn), POW (-328.7bn), VHM (-232.4bn), STB (-201.1bn), BSR (-190.3bn)
Flow Breadth: 155 stocks bought vs 173 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -5021.6bn, 10d: VND -6436.2bn, 20d: VND -9528.8bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money Direction: Outflow
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Narrowing / Dual-signal (Overheat top + Capitulation bottom forming simultaneously)
Stocks in Focus
# Stocks in Focus — Morning Call | 2026-03-04
SECTION 1: CONFLUENCE PICKS
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% (10 brokers) | PE 13.8x (19th %ile 3Y), PB 1.65x (68th %ile 3Y) | Three independent source lists align positively. SIF thesis rests on 20% YoY rebar volume growth, rising ASP, and the Dung Quat 2 blast furnace adding ~38% NPATMI growth in 2026F to VND 21,841bn. The Thu Lam project represents a further ~10% market cap upside option over two years. Anti-dumping duty on HRC expected in March 2026 provides a near-term volume catalyst for 2H26. Zalo sentiment is clean at 3 buys, 0 sells. PE at the 19th percentile is the primary valuation support; PB at 68th percentile is less compelling. Key risk: lower steel prices and elevated depreciation from new capacity. Zero revision movement across 10 brokers suggests consensus is anchored — any positive revision would be an incremental catalyst. |
| VCI | Buy | SIF, Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% (2 brokers) | PE 22.1x (13th %ile 3Y), PB 1.93x (14th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (03-Mar) with internal growth expectation of 30% NPATMI in 2026F, anchored by an IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88 secondary) contributing ~VND 215bn, with potential F88 HoSE listing excluded. Both PE (13th %ile) and PB (14th %ile) sit near the cheapest levels of the last 3 years — valuation is a genuine support rather than a cosmetic one. Zalo is the most-mentioned ticker in the dataset (8 mentions, 4B/2S) — the 2 sells are a minor flag worth monitoring. FTSE March announcement is an imminent event catalyst. Revision data is thin (only 2 brokers tracked) — consensus coverage is limited, which is both a risk and a differentiation opportunity for early movers. |
SECTION 2: SINGLE-SOURCE & MIXED SIGNALS
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSI | Watch | Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% (3 brokers) | PE 16.8x (31st %ile 3Y), PB 2.2x (68th %ile 3Y) | Two source lists but no SIF or revision support. Growth thesis is straightforward: +21% NPATMI in 2026F on +10% market volume and +25% margin lending balance. EM upgrade catalyst (Sep 2026) is real but well-known. Zalo sentiment is clean (4B/0S, 6 mentions). Valuation is middling — not cheap enough to be a standalone entry point. Await either a positive revision or SIF initiation before upgrading. |
| MSN | Watch | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% (6 brokers) | PE 28.0x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 3.11x (9th %ile 3Y) | Two comparison reports are notably bullish: BVSC forecasts +73% YoY NPATMI in 2026F vs. consensus ~20–30%, and SSI upgrades to BUY citing above-guidance earnings potential. PE at the 0th percentile means the stock is cheaper on earnings than at any point in the past 3 years — a strong valuation anchor. However, consensus NPATMI estimates show wide dispersion (VDSC_WHATSAPP at VND 3,966bn vs. BVSC at VND 7,114bn, a 79% range) — the bull case is not yet in consensus numbers. No SIF or revision upgrade to confirm. Worth tracking closely; a revision upgrade would move this to Confluence. |
| MWG | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% (11 brokers) | PE 18.6x (6th %ile 3Y), PB 4.0x (93rd %ile 3Y) | Strongest broker coverage depth in the dataset (8 brokers). Consensus expects +28% NPATMI in 2026F driven by BHX profitability inflection. PE at the 6th percentile is attractive; however, PB at the 93rd percentile reflects premium book value. No SIF, no revision movement, no Zalo momentum (only 1 buy mention). Valuation on earnings is the primary reason to watch; the PB stretch and absence of fresh catalysts cap the rating. |
| GMD | Watch | SIF | +0.0% (9 brokers) | PE 19.8x (97th %ile 3Y), PB 2.57x (78th %ile 3Y) | A direct conflict exists between the SIF (Strong Buy, TP 79k) and a recent IRIS note which downgrades to MARKET-PERFORM, citing a 40% price rally and valuation "approaching fair value." IRIS base case TP 91–95k for core + rubber sale, suggesting limited near-term upside at current levels. PE is at the 97th percentile — among the most expensive in its own 3-year history. The 10% port fee hike from Feb 2026 and end of Sumitomo block sale are known positives, but wide NPATMI dispersion (ACBS at VND 2,567bn vs. VCI at VND 1,397bn, a 84% range) reflects genuine uncertainty. IRIS note takes precedence here; downgrade from SIF rating. |
| ANV | Accumulate | Rev-Up, SIF | +0.0% (4 brokers) | PE 7.0x (13th %ile 3Y), PB 1.98x (80th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (29-Jan) with 2026F NPATMI growth of 20–25% YoY. PE at 7.0x (13th %ile) looks inexpensive relative to history and vs. sector peer VHC. Tilapia market share expansion and ASP recovery in pangasius in 1Q26 are the core drivers. However, one broker (VCBS) sits 41% below median at VND 609bn vs. median VND 1,039bn — a significant outlier that warrants caution. Revision data shows zero movement despite the SIF upgrade. PB at 80th %ile is the one valuation concern. |
| HAH | Accumulate | Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% (4 brokers) | PE 9.3x (50th %ile 3Y), PB 2.51x (94th %ile 3Y) | SSI comparison report is a standout: upgrades HAH from OUTPERFORM to BUY, citing improved 2026 visibility, structurally tight feeder markets, and fleet expansion. SSI's own forecast of VND 1,428bn is 16% above median. Zalo sentiment is uniformly bullish (7B/0S, 7 mentions — 3rd most mentioned). PE is at median history; PB is at the 94th percentile, which is the key constraint. No SIF coverage and zero revision movement limit the rating. |
| HT1 | Watch | Rev-Up | +13.3% avg (2 brokers) | PE 24.4x (7th %ile 3Y), PB 1.31x (93rd %ile 3Y) | Only ticker with a meaningful positive revision in the dataset (+13.3% average; BSC +27%). PE at the 7th percentile suggests the market is not pricing in the earnings recovery. However, the revision is driven by a single broker (BSC), and SSI has not moved. Wide dispersion: BSC at VND 634bn vs. SSI at VND 339bn (87% gap). PB at 93rd percentile is expensive on book. No SIF or Zalo support. Cement sector recovery thesis (>10% NPATMI growth on demand recovery and price increases) is plausible but needs broader confirmation. |
| ACV | Watch | Rev-Up | +0.0% (4 brokers) | PE 16.5x (1st %ile 3Y), PB 2.57x (0th %ile 3Y) | PE and PB are both at or near the 1st percentile of the 3-year range — historically cheap on both metrics simultaneously. Long Thanh and Noi Bai T2 commercial openings in 1H26 are concrete near-term catalysts. However, NPATMI dispersion is extreme: HSC at VND 6,800bn vs. VCI at VND 14,246bn (a 110% range), and the stated revision is +0.0% — the "Rev-Up" flag likely reflects the addition of a new estimate rather than an upgrade. No SIF, no Zalo, no broker consensus. Valuation alone is interesting but insufficient for conviction. |
| VHC | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +0.0% (6 brokers) | PE 10.2x (41st %ile 3Y), PB 1.46x (33rd %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (29-Jan) with TP 74k (25% upside) on 10–15% NPATMI growth in 2026F. Pangasius ASP above USD 3/kg in 1Q26 and potential US tariff relief are supportive. Valuation is mid-range — neither cheap nor stretched. Insider buying (~2.54%) and 15mn share buyback (~6.7%) are constructive corporate actions. In the Broker-Bottom5 list (undercovered), which creates differentiated return potential. One broker (VCI_ENG) sits 17% above median. No revision movement is the main negative signal. |
| VNM | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF | +0.0% (6 brokers) | PE 14.4x (27th %ile 3Y), PB 4.42x (59th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (28-Jan) with TP 78k. Earnings recovery thesis (15% YoY growth in 1H26F) rests on low base, better input costs, and fading GT channel disruption. EM reclassification and potential SCIC divestment are rerating catalysts. PE at 27th percentile is mildly supportive; PB is less compelling at 59th percentile. Zero revision movement across 6 brokers suggests the market is not yet upgrading estimates. 6.5% dividend yield provides downside cushion. Single-source (broker undercoverage + SIF), no revision trigger. |
| VHM | Watch | Broker-Bottom5 | +0.0% (5 brokers) | PE 9.3x (76th %ile 3Y), PB 1.63x (77th %ile 3Y) | Vietcap projects 7% NPATMI growth in 2026F (off a +69% presales base in 2025F). Ben Thanh-Can Gio Metro and Hanoi-Quang Ninh rail proposals provide infrastructure optionality. Valuation is above historical median on both PE and PB. ACBS is 20% above median at VND 47,891bn, but this is a single outlier. Only one broker in the tracked undercoverage list. No SIF, no revision, no Zalo. |
| TNG | Watch | SIF | +0.0% (4 brokers) | PE 8.5x (47th %ile 3Y), PB 1.72x (90th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (11-Feb) citing 15–20% NPATMI growth and attractive PE of 6.5x (note: data shows 8.5x — possible SIF vs. current price divergence). TP ~28k. VCBS sits 28% below median consensus, a meaningful outlier. PB at 90th percentile is the valuation concern. Macro and trade policy uncertainty (tariff risk on garment exports) is explicitly flagged in the SIF itself. No broker coverage beyond RES and no revision movement. |
| AGG | Watch | Rev-Up | +0.0% (1 broker) | PE 6.0x (26th %ile 3Y), PB 0.64x (0th %ile 3Y) | PB at the 0th percentile is the most extreme book value discount in the dataset. Single broker revision (VCBS) with zero revision delta — the Rev-Up classification may reflect coverage initiation. No thesis, no catalyst data, no Zalo. Insufficient data for a directional call. |
| ACB | Watch | Rev-Up | +0.0% (6 brokers) | PE 7.6x (92nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.26x (6th %ile 3Y) | PB at the 6th percentile looks inexpensive on book; however, PE at the 92nd percentile means the market is ascribing near-peak earnings multiples. 2026F credit growth of 18.3% is a solid thesis, but NIM pressure is a lingering headwind. Retail mortgage recovery is the key upside driver. Zero revision movement across 6 brokers despite the Rev-Up tag — similar to ACV, this may reflect a new broker addition rather than an estimate upgrade. No SIF or Zalo support. |
| MSH | Watch | SIF | +0.0% (1 broker) | PE 7.2x (12th %ile 3Y), PB 2.31x (95th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (25-Feb) with TP 48k (23% upside) after 4Q25 actuals were released. PE at 12th percentile is attractive. PB at 95th percentile is the most significant concern. Only one broker tracking estimates (ACBS). Very limited data ecosystem — the SIF is the sole signal. |
| PNJ | Neutral | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% (9 brokers) | PE 14.5x (48th %ile 3Y), PB 3.11x (85th %ile 3Y) | DC SIF is currently a HOLD (downgraded after 25% rally since Oct-25 SIF entry). Consensus expects 24–27% NPATMI growth in 2026F, but four brokers (MBS, SBBS, VCI, VCI_ENG) are 20–32% below median — meaningful downside disagreement within broker community. Valuation is at median PE with elevated PB. SIF Hold + broker consensus divergence = no actionable edge at current levels. |
| POW | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% (8 brokers) | PE 18.6x (20th %ile 3Y), PB 1.28x (99th %ile 3Y) | High retail attention (8 mentions, 6B/1S, 2nd most mentioned on Zalo) but PB at the 99th percentile is an extreme stretch on book value. SSI's NPATMI estimate of VND 449bn is 75% below the median of VND 1,765bn — an outlier that demands scrutiny. No SIF, no revision support. Retail-driven momentum without fundamental backing. |
| VGT | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | — | PE 9.0x (12th %ile 3Y), PB 1.07x (83rd %ile 3Y) | Undercovered (1 broker, SBBS). PE at 12th percentile is cheap relative to history but PB is elevated. No earnings estimates, no thesis, no additional signals. Insufficient data for any directional view. |
| VSC | Reduce | Broker-Bottom5, Rev-Down | +0.0% (2 brokers) | PE 28.0x (92nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.77x (88th %ile 3Y) | Double negative: appears in both undercoverage and Rev-Down lists. PE at 92nd percentile is expensive by recent history. Only two brokers cover it, and they are 90% apart in NPATMI estimates (ACBS VND 461bn vs. VDSC VND 177bn vs. median VND 319bn). The existing SIF (Dec-25) has already revised down its TP. Positive catalysts (VGR divestment gain, |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
Oil Analyst: Raising Our Price Forecast on Lower OECD Inventories Amidst Hormuz Disruptions
- Brent has risen just above $80 as oil exports and production in the Middle East are significantly disrupted. We assume that Brent will trade in the $80s in March as the market processes mixed signals with some relief from a potential gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows but also some renewed concerns as evidence of production cuts grows. - We are raising our 2026Q2 average oil price forecast for Brent by $10 to $76/bbl (vs. $66 prior) and by $9 for WTI to $71 (vs. $62) for two reasons. ... ---
USA: ISM Services Well Above Expectations; S&P Services PMI Revised Down
BOTTOM LINE: The ISM services index increased in February, well above expectations, to its highest level since July 2022. The composition of the report was strong, with increases in the business activity, new orders and employment components. The press release noted that the “services sector is heating up” and highlighted that “although there were several comments on tariff uncertainty regarding the U.S. Supreme Court decision, there was no alarm regarding supply chain performance.” The S&P Glob... ---
USA: ADP Employment Slightly Above Expectations
BOTTOM LINE: According to the ADP report, private sector employment rose by 63k in February, slightly above expectations. US MAP: ADP 0 (3, 0) KEY NUMBERS: ADP employment +63k for February vs. GS +50k, median forecast +50k, prior revised +11k MAIN POINTS: 1. According to the ADP report, private sector employment rose by 63k in February (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), from a downwardly-revised pace in January (-11k to +11k). Employment in the services sector rose 47k, reflecting a ... ---
Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts
Download PDF | Download PowerPoint To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click “Follow.” Changes to flag this week: - Raised our 2Q26/4Q26/2027 Brent crude oil price forecasts to $76/$66/$70/bbl (from $66/$60/$65/bbl) and our average 2Q26 European (TTF) natural gas price forecast to €45/MWh (from €36/MWh) to reflect energy disruptions related to the ongoing conflict with Iran. - Lowered our 2026 Euro area growth forecast to 1.2% yoy (from 1.3%) and raised our 2026 Euro area ... ---
India: Services PMI eased in February; new export orders at a six-month high
Bottom line: The seasonally adjusted HSBC India services PMI eased to 58.1 in February from 58.5 in January, but remained well above 50. New business growth softened to a 13-month low but remained well in expansion, while new export orders rose to a six-month high on broad-based increase in demand. Among the price related sub-indices, firms reported higher food and labor resulting in the input price index increasing to a 2.5 year high in February. The output price index increased to a six-month ... ---
European Daily: Europe—Scenarios for the Economic Repercussions of the Conflict in Iran
- We are making changes to our growth, inflation and central banks forecasts in light of the evolving conflict in the Middle East. The main driver of our forecast changes are our commodity strategists’ revised forecasts for oil (at $71/bbl on average in 2026) and gas prices (at 35 EUR/MWh on average this year). - Given the ongoing uncertainties, we introduce scenarios to consider the potential effects of larger and more prolonged increases in energy prices. In a downside scenario, we assume tha... ---
China: Official PMIs soft on late LNY while unofficial PMIs show solid growth momentum in February
Bottom line: The NBS manufacturing PMI declined to 49.0 in February from 49.3 in January. Conversely, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI increased to 52.1, up from 50.3. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.5 in February from 49.4, driven by a modest rise in the services PMI. The RatingDog services PMI showed a more pronounced increase, climbing to 56.7 in February from 52.3. The later-than-usual Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday exerted downward pressure on the February NBS PMIs (both... ---
Into An Inflationary Bust?
Donald Trump’s promise Tuesday that “the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world,” if necessary by escorting tankers through the Straits of Hormuz, left investors unimpressed Wednesday in Asia. Across the region, equity markets continued to slide as investors contemplated the likely macro and market fallout should trade through the Straits remain suspended for an extended period (see Dire Straits). A simple historical comparison with 2022 suggests the effects on economies...