Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Executive Summary
Market Overview · VNINDEX: 1813.14 (-33.05 pts, -1.79%) | VN30: 1959.35 (-2.56%) · Market Breadth: 120 advancers vs 214 decliners (ratio: 0.56) · Leaders: Energy (+6.77%), Utilities (+4.83%), Healthcare (+0.34%) · Laggards: Industrials (-0.78%), Financials (-0.91%), Materials (-1.19%), Consumer Disc (-2.19%), Consumer Staples (-2.56%), IT (-3.0%), Real Estate (-5.76%)
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -814.7bn · Top Buyer: VPB (+155.3bn) · Top Seller: HPG (-370.3bn)
Regime Tags: Trend health: Distribution | Sentiment: Balanced | Money direction: Outflow | Sector bias: Rotating
Market Snapshot
Index Performance
| Index | Close | Change % | Volume (mn) | Value (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNINDEX | 1,813.14 | 1.79% | 1,306.10 | 43,812.8 |
| VN30 | 1,959.35 | 2.56% | 573.60 | 24,550.9 |
| VN100 | 1,864.78 | 2.03% | 1,139.50 | 39,794.8 |
Sector Heatmap
Market Breadth
Foreign Investor Flows
Top Net Buyers
Top Net Sellers
Foreign Room Alerts
| Ticker | Remaining | % Utilized |
|---|---|---|
| TCB | -40,375 | 100.00% |
| VNZ | -257 | 100.00% |
| MBB | 0 | 100.00% |
| REE | 0 | 100.00% |
| ASP | 1 | 100.00% |
| ABB | 1,300 | 100.00% |
| CTD | 22,515 | 99.96% |
| SAV | 74,314 | 99.44% |
| PNJ | 1,142,206 | 99.32% |
| FUEKIV30 | 1,457,400 | 99.24% |
View full narrative
Foreign Investor Activity · Net Flow: VND -814.7bn — heavy net selling
Top Net Buyers: VPB (+155.3bn), SSI (+144.8bn), DCM (+138.0bn), PC1 (+91.4bn), HCM (+84.9bn)
Top Net Sellers: HPG (-370.3bn), VHM (-253.1bn), VNM (-144.9bn), POW (-140.7bn), BSR (-129.1bn)
Flow Breadth: 134 stocks bought vs 195 sold
Trailing Flows: 5d: VND -4187.1bn, 10d: VND -2470.2bn, 20d: VND -9584.5bn
Put-Through Transactions
Intraday Money Flow (CVD)
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Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
IRIS Analysis
Foreign Flow Snapshot
Flow Breadth & Names
Derivatives & Broker Arbitrage
Money direction: Outflow
Top Ideas & Actions
Where to Play
Sector Heatmap
Today's Flow Movers
Regime Crossings & Reversals
Structural Damage vs Recovery
Flow Breadth
Sector bias: Rotating
Stocks in Focus
I notice that virtually all NPATMI revisions show "+0.0% avg" across the dataset — meaning the revision signal is flat for nearly every ticker, with HT1 being the only exception at +13.3%. The "Rev-Up/Rev-Down" list categorizations therefore reflect relative ranking among peers rather than absolute estimate changes. I will treat source-list membership as the signal, not the revision magnitude, and will note where revision data is uninformative.
STOCKS IN FOCUS — Morning Call | 2026-03-03
TABLE 1: CONFLUENCE PICKS
| Ticker | Rating | Sources | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Buy | SIF, Broker-Top5, Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 13.8x (19th %ile 3Y), PB 1.65x (68th %ile 3Y) | Three independent sources aligned: SIF Buy initiated today by minhbui on rebar volume growth (+20% YoY), rising ASP, and the AD duty on HRC imports due March 2025 as a 2H26 volume driver. The Thu Lam project catalyst is estimated to add VND 20,000 bn profit over two years, equivalent to ~10% of market cap. Broker consensus projects FY26 NPATMI of VND 21,841 bn (+33.9% YoY) and FY27 +29%, driven by the Dung Quat 2 blast furnace contribution and a 40% revenue expansion in steel. PE at the 19th percentile vs. 3-year history is supportive, though PB at the 68th percentile is less so. The flat consensus revision (+0.0% across 10 brokers) means no near-term estimate upgrade momentum, and management flagged short-term risks: weaker steel prices, higher DQ2 depreciation, softer exports. Zalo rank #1 with 6 mentions, all buy-biased, adds retail flow confirmation. EM inclusion is an additional re-rating catalyst. Net assessment: solid fundamental and thematic convergence, valuation modestly cheap on earnings basis; the absence of positive revisions is the key caveat. |
| VCI | Buy | SIF, Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 20.7x (8th %ile 3Y), PB 1.8x (5th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy initiated today by Thaodien with unusually specific internal conviction: "internal chatter" pointing to 100% FY26 NPATMI growth vs. DC's own 30% forecast. IB pipeline (HPA, DMX, F88 secondary) is estimated at ~VND 215 bn profit contribution, with the potential F88 HoSE listing excluded from estimates — providing unquantified upside. Even ex-IB, growth is modeled at 17%. FTSE March announcement is a near-term catalyst. Valuation is the standout: PE at the 8th percentile and PB at the 5th percentile versus 3-year history — both near cycle lows — making this one of the cheapest reads on the screen. Zalo rank #3 with 5 mentions (3B/1S) shows retail interest with one cautious voice. Broker revision is flat (0.0% across 2 brokers), and coverage is thin at 5 houses, which reduces revision signal quality but also suggests the stock is under-followed relative to its catalyst set. The "Others" investment income category of VND 5 tn (with only MCH identified) is a material unquantified upside. No conflicting signals from IRIS or broker comparison reports. |
TABLE 2: SINGLE-SOURCE & MIXED SIGNALS
| Ticker | Rating | Source | Rev % | Valuation | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMD | Watch | SIF | +0.0% | PE 20.4x (99th %ile 3Y), PB 2.66x (84th %ile 3Y) | SIF carries a Strong Buy rating (upgraded Jan 2026) on port fee hike approval (+10% effective Feb 2026), 18% share price pullback from Sep-25 high, and the removal of the SSJ Consulting block-sale overhang. However, DC IRIS note from the last three days is a direct conflict: internal analyst downgrades to MARKET-PERFORM citing a 40% price rally that has compressed valuation to the 99th percentile PE — explicitly stating "REDUCE on STRENGTH." Base-case TP is VND 91–95k for core business plus rubber divestment. The SIF thesis remains valid fundamentally, but the IRIS note signals the risk/reward has deteriorated since the original call. Broker estimates show wide dispersion (ACBS +34% vs. VCI -27% vs. median), reflecting genuine uncertainty. Treat as a hold for existing positions; do not add at current levels. |
| ANV | Watch | Rev-Up, SIF (Jan) | +0.0% | PE 6.9x (13th %ile 3Y), PB 1.97x (80th %ile 3Y) | Appears on Rev-Up list and carries an active SIF Buy from January (huyennguyen). DC IRIS provides two fresh notes: (1) Neutral on the preliminary AD review — ANV assigned USD 0.23/kg dumping rate, a step-up vs. prior cycle, with final results due June–August 2026; VHC notably retains zero rate. (2) Positive on the Section 122 tariff reset, which halves ANV's pangasius tariff burden to 10% baseline through July 2026, boosting U.S. export margins. PE at the 13th percentile is cheap vs. history. The AD step-up is a genuine risk that partially offsets the tariff reduction; the two signals are not fully offsetting. One broker (VCBS) is 41% below the median estimate, flagging meaningful earnings uncertainty. Net: positive setup but AD outcome in mid-2026 is a binary risk. |
| VHC | Watch | Broker-Bottom5, SIF (Jan) | +0.0% | PE 10.3x (43th %ile 3Y), PB 1.48x (36th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy from January with a VND 74k target (~25% upside at time of initiation). DC IRIS notes are the same as ANV: Neutral on AD review (VHC retains zero dumping rate — a structural advantage over ANV), and Positive on Section 122 tariff reset. VHC's zero AD rate is a key differentiator vs. peers. Insider buying (~2.54%) and an active 15 mn share buyback (~6.7%) provide additional support. Valuation is middling (43rd/36th percentile). Differentiated broker coverage (Broker-Bottom5) with thin consensus (1 active broker, SSI) means price discovery is limited. The combination of zero AD rate + tariff reduction + buyback makes VHC more straightforwardly positive than ANV in the seafood pair. |
| HAH | Accumulate | Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 9.8x (55th %ile 3Y), PB 2.66x (99th %ile 3Y) | Zalo rank #4 with 5 mentions, all buy-biased — the strongest buy-only retail signal on the screen. SSI comparison report shows a notable positive shift: upgrading from OUTPERFORM to BUY, citing improved 2026 earnings visibility, structurally tight feeder markets, and accelerated fleet expansion. SSI's estimate of VND 1,428 bn is 16% above median. The single-source caution is offset by the broker tone shift. The critical constraint is PB at the 99th percentile, the most stretched book value reading in the dataset — limiting upside for valuation re-rating. Accumulate on dips rather than at current levels. |
| MSN | Watch | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 28.4x (0th %ile 3Y), PB 3.15x (10th %ile 3Y) | BVSC comparison report turns markedly more bullish: 73% YoY NPATMI growth forecast for 2026 vs. consensus 20–30%, with explicit reference to a "new peak" in profitability. PE at the 0th percentile — the cheapest earnings multiple vs. any point in the last 3 years — is a meaningful valuation support. However, broker estimates show wide dispersion (SSI +34% vs. VDSC -26% vs. median), and the complex conglomerate structure (WCM, MSR, MML, MCH) makes earnings visibility low. No SIF coverage and no IRIS notes. BVSC's bullish tone is a positive signal, but insufficient alone without corroboration. |
| MWG | Accumulate | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 18.5x (5th %ile 3Y), PB 3.97x (92th %ile 3Y) | Highest broker coverage on the screen (8 houses). FY26 NPATMI growth consensus around 21–28%, driven by BHX expansion and continued TGDD/DMX profitability. PE at the 5th percentile is historically cheap on earnings. PB at the 92nd percentile is elevated. No SIF, no IRIS notes, no positive revision signal — purely a high-coverage consensus name. BVSC and SSI are 15–19% above median on estimates. Accumulate rather than Buy given the single-source, no-revision context, despite the cheap PE. |
| ACB | Watch | Rev-Up | +0.0% | PE 7.7x (92nd %ile 3Y), PB 1.28x (8th %ile 3Y) | Appears on Rev-Up list. Credit growth projected at 18.3% in 2026 with corporate lending at +20%. PB at the 8th percentile is historically cheap on book value. However, PE at the 92nd percentile is expensive on earnings — an unusual divergence implying compressed ROE. NIM is described as continuing to edge down. Favorable asset quality trajectory is the key bull case. No SIF, no IRIS, thin broker coverage (2 active). Watch pending clarity on NIM stabilization. |
| ACV | Watch | Rev-Up | +0.0% | PE 16.9x (2nd %ile 3Y), PB 2.63x (0th %ile 3Y) | PE at the 2nd percentile and PB at the 0th percentile — both at multi-year lows — suggest deep valuation compression. Long Thanh airport and Noi Bai T2 expansion expected to enter commercial operation in 1H26, a significant structural capacity catalyst. However, broker estimates are deeply divergent (HSC at VND 6,800 bn vs. VCI at VND 14,246 bn — a 2.1x spread), the widest in the dataset, indicating fundamental uncertainty about the earnings ramp timing. Single-source Rev-Up. Monitor for estimate convergence post Long Thanh opening. |
| HT1 | Watch | Rev-Up | +13.3% avg | PE 24.4x (8th %ile 3Y), PB 1.31x (93rd %ile 3Y) | The only ticker with a meaningful positive NPATMI revision: +13.3% average (BSC +27%, SSI flat). PE at the 8th percentile supports the earnings-cheap narrative. However, PB at the 93rd percentile is elevated, and BSC vs. SSI estimate divergence (BSC VND 634 bn vs. SSI VND 339 bn — SSI is 30% below median) suggests one broker is an outlier. Cement sector recovery thesis (>10% profit growth in 2026 on improved demand and higher cement prices) is plausible but not confirmed by IRIS. Single broker driving the revision. Watch. |
| TNG | Accumulate | SIF | +0.0% | PE 8.2x (46th %ile 3Y), PB 1.67x (85th %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy initiated February 2026 with a VND 28k target, citing 15–20% YoY earnings growth in 2026F and a PE of 6.5x at 1 standard deviation below the 5-year average. One outlier broker (VCBS) is 28% below the median estimate, which introduces downside risk to the earnings case. Trade policy uncertainty acknowledged in the SIF thesis. PB at the 85th percentile is stretched. Thin coverage (1 active broker beyond ACBS). Accumulate given SIF conviction but limited external corroboration. |
| MSH | Accumulate | SIF | +0.0% | PE 7.1x (11th %ile 3Y), PB 2.26x (92nd %ile 3Y) | SIF Buy (February 2026, quanpham) with a revised TP of VND 48,000 (23% upside) following 4Q25 actual results. PE at the 11th percentile is cheap on earnings. PB at the 92nd percentile is high for a manufacturing name. Only 1 broker covering (ACBS) with zero revision signal. No IRIS notes, no retail or broker consensus support. Purely SIF-driven call; accumulate for positions that can tolerate low liquidity and limited coverage. |
| VNM | Accumulate | Broker-Bottom5, SIF (Jan) | +0.0% | PE 14.1x (23rd %ile 3Y), PB 4.32x (47th %ile 3Y) | Active SIF Buy from January with a VND 78k target. Bull case: 15% earnings growth in 1H26F on a low base, 6.5% dividend yield, EM reclassification re-rating potential, and potential SCIC divestment as a catalyst. PE at the 23rd percentile offers some valuation cushion. Broker FY25 EPS showed -4.8% and FY26 consensus is only +5.8% — materially below the SIF's 15% thesis, suggesting the SIF is more optimistic than external models. Differentiated (Broker-Bottom5) but with thin coverage (1 active broker, MSVN). Accumulate as a yield + re-rating play. |
| VHM | Neutral | Broker-Bottom5 | +0.0% | PE 9.3x (76th %ile 3Y), PB 1.63x (77th %ile 3Y) | Single-source Broker-Bottom5 with thin coverage (1 active broker, Vietcap). 2026F NPATMI growth projected at 7% after a 69% YoY presales rise in 2025F — a notable deceleration. Valuation is in the upper quartile on both PE and PB. Infrastructure catalyst (metro lines, high-speed rail via VIC/VinSpeed involvement) is positive optionality. No SIF, no IRIS, no revision signal. Neutral. |
| DCM | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 13.3x (77th %ile 3Y), PB 2.42x (100th %ile 3Y) | Zalo rank #5 with 4 mentions (2B/0S). PB at the 100th percentile — the most expensive on book value vs. history in the entire dataset. Wide broker dispersion (MBS +19%, VCBS -29% vs. median). 2026 NPATMI growth of 16–26% YoY depending on broker, driven by urea price assumptions. No SIF, no IRIS, no revision upgrade. Retail attention is insufficient to justify entry at peak PB. Neutral. |
| POW | Neutral | Zalo-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 19.9x (38th %ile 3Y), PB 1.37x (100th %ile 3Y) | Zalo rank #2 with 6 mentions, the highest raw mention count on the screen (alongside HPG), and 5/6 buy-biased. However, SSI's estimate of VND 449 bn is 75% below the median of VND 1,765 bn — the widest single-broker negative divergence in the dataset, suggesting significant earnings uncertainty. PB at the 100th percentile (tied with DCM as most expensive on book) is a constraint. No SIF, no IRIS, no other source confirmation. Retail enthusiasm does not offset the fundamental uncertainty. Neutral. |
| SSI | Neutral | Broker-Top5 | +0.0% | PE 16.3x (23rd %ile 3Y), PB 2.13x (58th %ile 3Y) | High-conviction broker coverage name (5 houses). FY26 NPATMI growth of |
Broker Research
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Macro Research
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Dire Straits
Donald Trump said late Monday that the US bombing campaign against Iran could last “four to five weeks. But we have capability to go far longer than that.” This means businesses and investors must contemplate the effect on energy markets if oil and liquefied natural gas traffic through the Straits of Hormuz remains suspended for a month or more. The impact will be mixed, but for some energy importers, the picture is ugly. Oil first. On average over 2024-25, tankers carrying 20mn barrels per day...